BACKGROUND: Three global reports issued by the World Health Organization (WHO) track and report on trends in the prevalence of tobacco smoking from 2000 to 2025 based on data from national surveys. AIMS: This review aimed to compare regional and country-level projections for current tobacco smoking as presented in the WHO trend reports. These changes were considered in the context of improved monitoring and tobacco control policies. METHODS: Regional and country-level results in the WHO trend reports were considered in terms of the projected percentage point increase of current tobacco smoking between 2000 and 2025. Data on national surveys and policy implementation came from the relevant WHO reports. RESULTS: In the 2019 trend report, the prevalence of current tobacco smoking among males is projected to decrease by less than 2 percentage points by 2025. Eight countries featured in both the 2015 and 2019 WHO trend reports. Seven of these countries indicated a more encouraging projection (a decline in their projected increase between 2000 and 2025) for current male tobacco smoking in the 2019 report than in the 2015 report. For five out of these seven countries, their monitoring and tobacco control policy implementation improved over the same period. CONCLUSION: Countries in the Region should implement additional national surveys to improve the accuracy of prevalence estimates, allow further projections to be performed and motivate policy-makers to make positive policy changes. Solutions to under-reporting biases during surveys should be considered. Governments should use trend projections to guide effective tobacco control policies to reduce tobacco use in the Region.
BACKGROUND: Three global reports issued by the World Health Organization (WHO) track and report on trends in the prevalence of tobacco smoking from 2000 to 2025 based on data from national surveys. AIMS: This review aimed to compare regional and country-level projections for current tobacco smoking as presented in the WHO trend reports. These changes were considered in the context of improved monitoring and tobacco control policies. METHODS: Regional and country-level results in the WHO trend reports were considered in terms of the projected percentage point increase of current tobacco smoking between 2000 and 2025. Data on national surveys and policy implementation came from the relevant WHO reports. RESULTS: In the 2019 trend report, the prevalence of current tobacco smoking among males is projected to decrease by less than 2 percentage points by 2025. Eight countries featured in both the 2015 and 2019 WHO trend reports. Seven of these countries indicated a more encouraging projection (a decline in their projected increase between 2000 and 2025) for current male tobacco smoking in the 2019 report than in the 2015 report. For five out of these seven countries, their monitoring and tobacco control policy implementation improved over the same period. CONCLUSION: Countries in the Region should implement additional national surveys to improve the accuracy of prevalence estimates, allow further projections to be performed and motivate policy-makers to make positive policy changes. Solutions to under-reporting biases during surveys should be considered. Governments should use trend projections to guide effective tobacco control policies to reduce tobacco use in the Region.