Modeling estimates of the effect of acid rain on background radiation dose.

Acid rain causes accelerated mobilization of many materials in soils. Natural and anthropogenic radionuclides, especially 226Ra and 137Cs, are among these materials. Okamoto is apparently the only researcher to date who has attempted to quantify the effect of acid rain on the "background" radiation dose to man. He estimated an increase in dose by a factor of 1.3 following a decrease in soil pH of 1 unit. We reviewed literature that described the effects of changes in pH on mobility and plant uptake of Ra and Cs. Generally, a decrease in soil pH by 1 unit will increase mobility and plant uptake by factors of 2 to 7. Thus, Okamoto's dose estimate may be too low. We applied several simulation models to confirm Okamoto's ideas, with most emphasis on an atmospherically driven soil model that predicts water and nuclide flow through a soil profile. We modeled a typical, acid-rain sensitive soil using meteorological data from Geraldton, Ontario. The results, within the range of effects on the soil expected from acidification, showed essentially direct proportionality between the mobility of the nuclides and dose. This supports some of the assumptions invoked by Okamoto. We conclude that a decrease in pH of 1 unit may increase the mobility of Ra and Cs by a factor of 2 or more. Our models predict that this will lead to similar increases in plant uptake and radiological dose to man. Although health effects following such a small increase in dose have not been statistically demonstrated, any increase in dose is probably undesirable.