Large increases of paddy rice area, gross primary production, and grain production in Northeast China during 2000-2017.

China is the largest rice producer and consumer in the world. Accurate estimations of paddy rice planting area and rice grain production is important for feeding the increasing population in China. However, Southern China had substantial losses in paddy rice area over the last three decades in those regions where paddy rice has traditionally been produced. Several studies have shown increased paddy rice area in Northeast China. Here we document the annual dynamics of paddy rice area, gross primary production (GPP), and grain production in Northeast China (Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning provinces) during 2000-2017 using agricultural statistical data, satellite images, and model simulations. Annual maps derived from satellite images show that paddy rice area in Northeast China has increased by 3.68 million ha from 2000 to 2017, which is more than the total combined paddy rice area of North Korea, South Korea, and Japan. Approximately 82% of paddy rice pixels had an increase in annual GPP during 2000-2017. The expansion of paddy rice area slowed down substantially since 2015. Annual GPP from those paddy rice fields cultivated continuously over the 18 years were moderately higher than that from other paddy rice fields, which suggested that improved management practices could increase grain production in the region. There was a strong linear relationship between annual GPP and annual rice grain production in Northeast China by province and year, which illustrates the potential of using satellite-based data-driven model to track and assess grain production of paddy rice in the region. Northeast China is clearly an emerging rice production base and plays an increasing role in crop production and food security in China. However, many challenges for the further expansion and sustainable cultivation of paddy rice in Northeast China remain.