Mahdi Bouassida1,2, Ghazi Laamiri3,4, Slim Zribi3,4, Helmi Slama3,4, Bassem Mroua3,4, Selim Sassi3,4, Rania Aboudi3,4, Mohamed Mongi Mighri3,4, Khaled Bouzeidi4,5, Hassen Touinsi3,4. 1. Department of Surgery, Mohamed Tahar Maamouri Hospital, Nabeul, Tunisia. bouassidamahdi@yahoo.fr. 2. Faculty of Medicine of Tunis, Tunis El Manar University, Tunis, Tunisia. bouassidamahdi@yahoo.fr. 3. Department of Surgery, Mohamed Tahar Maamouri Hospital, Nabeul, Tunisia. 4. Faculty of Medicine of Tunis, Tunis El Manar University, Tunis, Tunisia. 5. Department of Radiology, Mohamed Tahar Maamouri Hospital, Nabeul, Tunisia.
Abstract
BACKGROUND/AIMS: Intestinal ischaemia (II) is the most critical factor to determine in patients with adhesive small bowel obstruction (ASBO) because intestinal ischaemia could be reversible. The aim of this study was to create a clinicoradiological score to predict II in patients with ASBO. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study including 124 patients with ASBO. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictive factors of II. We assigned points for the score according to the regression coefficient. The area under the curve (AUC) was determined using receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS: Six independent predictive factors of II were identified: age, pain duration, body temperature, WBC, reduced wall enhancement and segmental mesenteric fluid at CT scan. According to the regression, coefficient points were assigned to each of the variables associated with II. The estimated rates of II were calculated for the total scores ranging from 0 to 24. The AUC of this clinicoradiological score was 0.92. A cut-off score of 6 was used for the low-probability group (the risk of II was 1.13%). A score ranging from 7 to 15 defined intermediate-probability group (the risk of II was 44%). A score ≥16 defined high-probability group (100% of patients in this group had II). CONCLUSIONS: We performed a score to predict the risk of intestinal II with a good accuracy (the AUC of our score exceeded 0.90). This score is reliable and reproducible, so it can help surgeon to prioritize patients with II for surgery because ischaemia could be reversible, avoiding thus intestinal necrosis.
BACKGROUND/AIMS: Intestinal ischaemia (II) is the most critical factor to determine in patients with adhesive small bowel obstruction (ASBO) because intestinal ischaemia could be reversible. The aim of this study was to create a clinicoradiological score to predict II in patients with ASBO. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study including 124 patients with ASBO. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictive factors of II. We assigned points for the score according to the regression coefficient. The area under the curve (AUC) was determined using receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS: Six independent predictive factors of II were identified: age, pain duration, body temperature, WBC, reduced wall enhancement and segmental mesenteric fluid at CT scan. According to the regression, coefficient points were assigned to each of the variables associated with II. The estimated rates of II were calculated for the total scores ranging from 0 to 24. The AUC of this clinicoradiological score was 0.92. A cut-off score of 6 was used for the low-probability group (the risk of II was 1.13%). A score ranging from 7 to 15 defined intermediate-probability group (the risk of II was 44%). A score ≥16 defined high-probability group (100% of patients in this group had II). CONCLUSIONS: We performed a score to predict the risk of intestinal II with a good accuracy (the AUC of our score exceeded 0.90). This score is reliable and reproducible, so it can help surgeon to prioritize patients with II for surgery because ischaemia could be reversible, avoiding thus intestinal necrosis.
Authors: Chema Strik; Martijn W J Stommel; Laura J Schipper; Harry van Goor; Richard P G Ten Broek Journal: Surgery Date: 2016-01-06 Impact factor: 3.982