Climate change impacts and adaptations for fine, coarse, and hybrid rice using CERES-Rice.

Climate change has become a threatening issue for major field crops of Pakistan, especially rice. A 2 years' (2014 and 2015) field trial was conducted on fine, coarse, and hybrid rice at Research Area, Department of Agronomy, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad following the split-plot design. Data of growth, yield, and yield components were collected to calibrate and evaluate the CERES-Rice model under Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT). Two cultivars of each type of fine, coarse, and hybrid rice were transplanted with interval of fortnight from May to September during 2014 and 2015. The model was calibrated with non-stressed sowing data during the year 2014 and evaluated with the data of 2015. Climate change scenarios were generated for mid-century (2040-2069) under representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5) using different general circulation models (GCMs) (baseline, cool dry, hot dry, cool wet, hot wet, and middle) were using different General Circulation Models (GCMs). CERES-Rice calibration and evaluation results were quite good to simulate impacts of climate change and to formulate adaptations during 2040-2069 (mid-century). Simulations of all GCMs showed an average increase of 3 °C in average temperature as compared to baseline (1980-2010). Likewise, there would be an average increase of 107.6 mm in rainfall than baseline. The future rise in temperature will reduced the paddy yield by 10.33% in fine, 18-54% in coarse and 24-64% in hybrid rice for mid-century under RCP8.5. To nullified deleterious effects of climate change, some agronomic and genetics adaptation strategies were evaluated with CERES-rice during mid-century. Paddy yield of fine rice was increased by 15% in cool dry and 5% in hot dry GCM. Paddy yield of coarse rice was improved by 15% and 9% under cool dry and hot dry climatic conditions, respectively, with adaptations. For hybrid rice, paddy yield was enhanced by 15% and 0.3% with cool wet and hot dry climatic conditions, respectively. Hot dry climatic conditions were the most threatening for rice crop in rice producing areas of Punjab, Pakistan.