Among Low-Income Adults Enrolled In Medicaid, Churning Decreased After The Affordable Care Act.

Coverage disruptions and coverage loss occur frequently among Medicaid enrollees and are associated with delayed health care access and reduced medication adherence. Little is known about the effect on churning of the expansion of eligibility for Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which had the potential to reduce coverage disruptions as a result of increased outreach and more generous income eligibility criteria. We used a difference-in-differences framework to compare rates of coverage disruption in expansion versus nonexpansion states, and in subgroups of states that used alternative expansion strategies. We found that among low-income Medicaid beneficiaries ages 19-64, disruption in coverage decreased 4.3 percentage points in the post-ACA period in expansion states compared to nonexpansion states, and there was a similar decrease in the share of people who experienced a period without any insurance. Men, people of color, and those without chronic illnesses experienced the largest improvements in coverage continuity. Coverage disruptions declined in both traditional expansion states and those that used Section 1115 waivers for expansion. Our quasi-experimental study provides the first nationwide evidence that Medicaid expansion led to decreased rates of coverage disruption. We estimate that half a million fewer adults experienced an episode of churning annually.