Alyssa S Parpia1, Laura A Skrip2, Elaine O Nsoesie3, Moise C Ngwa4, Aristide S Abah Abah5, Alison P Galvani1, Martial L Ndeffo-Mbah6. 1. Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT. 2. Institute for Disease Modeling, Bellevue, WA. 3. Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA. 4. Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, MD. 5. Department of Epidemiological Surveillance, Ministry of Health, Yaoundé, Cameroon. 6. Department of Veterinary and Integrative Biosciences, Texas A&M College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, College Station, TX; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Texas A&M School of Public Health, College Station, TX. Electronic address: mndeffo@cvm.tamu.edu.
Abstract
PURPOSE: In 2012, Cameroon experienced a large measles outbreak of over 14,000 cases. To determine the spatio-temporal dynamics of measles transmission in Cameroon, we analyzed weekly case data collected by the Ministry of Health. METHODS: We compared several multivariate time-series models of population movement to characterize the spatial spread of measles in Cameroon. Using the best model, we evaluated the contribution of population mobility to disease transmission at increasing geographic resolutions: region, department, and health district. RESULTS: Our spatio-temporal analysis showed that the power law model, which accounts for long-distance population movement, best represents the spatial spread of measles in Cameroon. Population movement between health districts within departments contributed to 7.6% (range: 0.4%-13.4%) of cases at the district level, whereas movement between departments within regions contributed to 16.0% (range: 1.3%-23.2%) of cases. Long-distance movement between regions contributed to 16.7% (range: 0.1%-59.0%) of cases at the region level, 20.1% (range: 7.1%-30.0%) at the department level, and 29.7% (range: 15.3%-47.6%) at the health district level. CONCLUSIONS: Population long-distance mobility is an important driver of measles dynamics in Cameroon. These findings demonstrate the need to improve our understanding of the roles of population mobility and local heterogeneity of vaccination coverage in the spread and control of measles in Cameroon.
PURPOSE: In 2012, Cameroon experienced a large measles outbreak of over 14,000 cases. To determine the spatio-temporal dynamics of measles transmission in Cameroon, we analyzed weekly case data collected by the Ministry of Health. METHODS: We compared several multivariate time-series models of population movement to characterize the spatial spread of measles in Cameroon. Using the best model, we evaluated the contribution of population mobility to disease transmission at increasing geographic resolutions: region, department, and health district. RESULTS: Our spatio-temporal analysis showed that the power law model, which accounts for long-distance population movement, best represents the spatial spread of measles in Cameroon. Population movement between health districts within departments contributed to 7.6% (range: 0.4%-13.4%) of cases at the district level, whereas movement between departments within regions contributed to 16.0% (range: 1.3%-23.2%) of cases. Long-distance movement between regions contributed to 16.7% (range: 0.1%-59.0%) of cases at the region level, 20.1% (range: 7.1%-30.0%) at the department level, and 29.7% (range: 15.3%-47.6%) at the health district level. CONCLUSIONS: Population long-distance mobility is an important driver of measles dynamics in Cameroon. These findings demonstrate the need to improve our understanding of the roles of population mobility and local heterogeneity of vaccination coverage in the spread and control of measles in Cameroon.
Authors: Martial L Ndeffo Mbah; Jingzhou Liu; Chris T Bauch; Yonas I Tekel; Jan Medlock; Lauren Ancel Meyers; Alison P Galvani Journal: PLoS Comput Biol Date: 2012-04-12 Impact factor: 4.475
Authors: Moise Chi Ngwa; Song Liang; Leonard Mbam Mbam; Arabi Mouhaman; Andrew Teboh; Kaousseri Brekmo; Onana Mevoula; John Glenn Morris Journal: Pan Afr Med J Date: 2016-07-12
Authors: Balcha G Masresha; Meredith G Dixon; Jennifer L Kriss; Reggis Katsande; Messeret E Shibeshi; Richard Luce; Amadou Fall; Annick R G A Dosseh; Charles R Byabamazima; Alya J Dabbagh; James L Goodson; Richard Mihigo Journal: MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep Date: 2017-05-05 Impact factor: 17.586
Authors: Jonathan F Mosser; William Gagne-Maynard; Puja C Rao; Aaron Osgood-Zimmerman; Nancy Fullman; Nicholas Graetz; Roy Burstein; Rachel L Updike; Patrick Y Liu; Sarah E Ray; Lucas Earl; Aniruddha Deshpande; Daniel C Casey; Laura Dwyer-Lindgren; Elizabeth A Cromwell; David M Pigott; Freya M Shearer; Heidi Jane Larson; Daniel J Weiss; Samir Bhatt; Peter W Gething; Christopher J L Murray; Stephen S Lim; Robert C Reiner; Simon I Hay Journal: Lancet Date: 2019-04-05 Impact factor: 79.321