Frank I Scott1,2, Michelle Luo3, Yash Shah4, Karen Lasch5, Ravy K Vajravelu2,6, Ronac Mamtani7, Blair Fennimore1, Mark E Gerich1, James D Lewis2,5. 1. Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO,USA. 2. Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA. 3. University of Pennsylvania School of Arts and Sciences, Philadelphia PA, USA. 4. Global Evidence & Out, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Deerfield, IL, USA. 5. US Medical Department, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Deerfield, IL, USA. 6. Division of Gastroenterology, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA. 7. Abramson Cancer Center, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: There are limited data on the most cost-effective sequencing of biologics for ulcerative colitis [UC]. METHODS: We used Markov modelling to identify the most cost-effective position for vedolizumab among biologics for steroid-dependent UC, with a base-case of a 35-year-old male. We assessed three treatment algorithms, with vedolizumab use: prior to an initial anti-tumour necrosis factor alpha [anti-TNFα] and azathioprine [Algorithm 1]; prior to a second anti-TNF and azathioprine [Algorithm 2]; and prior to colectomy [Algorithm 3]. The initial anti-TNF could be either infliximab or adalimumab. Transition probabilities, costs, and quality-adjusted life-year estimates were derived from published estimates, Medicare, and the Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Primary analyses included 100 trials of 100 000 individuals over 1 year, with a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$100,000. Multiple sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess our findings. RESULTS: From a population perspective, when both infliximab and adalimumab are available, vedolizumab was preferred as the first biologic if ≥14% of initial anti-TNF use was adalimumab. If infliximab is the primary biologic, vedolizumab use after infliximab [Algorithm 2] and prior to adalimumab was the most cost-effective strategy. All models were sensitive to biologic pricing. CONCLUSIONS: This simulation demonstrated that the most cost-effective strategy in UC depends on the proportion of patients using adalimumab as the initial anti-TNF. If adalimumab was ≥14%, vedolizumab was preferred as the first biologic. When only infliximab was available for first-line therapy, the most cost-effective position of vedolizumab was prior to cycling to adalimumab.
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: There are limited data on the most cost-effective sequencing of biologics for ulcerative colitis [UC]. METHODS: We used Markov modelling to identify the most cost-effective position for vedolizumab among biologics for steroid-dependent UC, with a base-case of a 35-year-old male. We assessed three treatment algorithms, with vedolizumab use: prior to an initial anti-tumour necrosis factor alpha [anti-TNFα] and azathioprine [Algorithm 1]; prior to a second anti-TNF and azathioprine [Algorithm 2]; and prior to colectomy [Algorithm 3]. The initial anti-TNF could be either infliximab or adalimumab. Transition probabilities, costs, and quality-adjusted life-year estimates were derived from published estimates, Medicare, and the Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Primary analyses included 100 trials of 100 000 individuals over 1 year, with a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$100,000. Multiple sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess our findings. RESULTS: From a population perspective, when both infliximab and adalimumab are available, vedolizumab was preferred as the first biologic if ≥14% of initial anti-TNF use was adalimumab. If infliximab is the primary biologic, vedolizumab use after infliximab [Algorithm 2] and prior to adalimumab was the most cost-effective strategy. All models were sensitive to biologic pricing. CONCLUSIONS: This simulation demonstrated that the most cost-effective strategy in UC depends on the proportion of patients using adalimumab as the initial anti-TNF. If adalimumab was ≥14%, vedolizumab was preferred as the first biologic. When only infliximab was available for first-line therapy, the most cost-effective position of vedolizumab was prior to cycling to adalimumab.
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