Jia-Yan Ni1,2, Zhu-Ting Fang3, Hong-Liang Sun2, Chao An1,4, Zhi-Mei Huang1, Tian-Qi Zhang1, Xiong-Ying Jiang2, Yao-Ting Chen2, Lin-Feng Xu5, Jin-Hua Huang6. 1. Department of Minimally Invasive Interventional Radiology, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Cancer for Cancer Medicine, 651 Dongfeng Road East, Guangzhou, 510060, Guangdong Province, People's Republic of China. 2. Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Malignant Tumor Epigenetics and Gene Regulation, Department of Interventional Radiology, Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, 107 Yanjiang Road West, Guangzhou, 510120, Guangdong Province, People's Republic of China. 3. Department of Interventional Radiology, Fujian Provincial Hospital, Provincial Clinic College of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, People's Republic of China. 4. Department of Interventional Ultrasound, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, People's Republic of China. 5. Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Malignant Tumor Epigenetics and Gene Regulation, Department of Interventional Radiology, Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, 107 Yanjiang Road West, Guangzhou, 510120, Guangdong Province, People's Republic of China. xu_lin_feng@163.com. 6. Department of Minimally Invasive Interventional Radiology, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Cancer for Cancer Medicine, 651 Dongfeng Road East, Guangzhou, 510060, Guangdong Province, People's Republic of China. huangjh_sysucc@163.com.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To develop a prognostic nomogram based on the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade for prediction of the long-term survival of patients with intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after transarterial chemoembolization combined with microwave ablation (TACE-MWA). METHODS: We retrospectively studied 546 consecutive patients with intermediate-stage HCC according to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer guidelines who underwent TACE-MWA between January 2000 and December 2016. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were analyzed. The predictive value of the ALBI grade was investigated. The prognostic nomogram was constructed using the independent predictors assessed by the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 35.0 months (range, 4.0-221.0 months), 380 patients had died. The median OS was 35.0 months (95% confidence interval (CI), 30.84-39.16 months), and the median PFS was 6.5 months (95% CI, 6.13-6.87 months). The ALBI grade was validated as an independent predictor of OS (p < 0.001). Multivariate analyses showed that Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status score more than 0, presence of liver cirrhosis, a-fetoprotein level above 400 ng/mL, tumor size greater than 5 cm, tumor number more than 3, advanced ALBI grade, and treatment sessions of TACE or MWA fewer than 3 were independently associated with overall mortality. The prognostic nomogram incorporating these eight predictors achieved good calibration and discriminatory abilities with a concordance index of 0.770 (95% CI, 0.746-0.795). CONCLUSIONS: The prognostic nomogram based on the ALBI grade resulted in reliable efficacy for prediction of individualized OS in patients with intermediate-stage HCC after TACE-MWA. KEY POINTS: • TACE-MWA was associated with a median overall survival of 35.0 months for patients with intermediate-stage HCC. • A prognostic nomogram was built to predict individualized survival of patients with intermediate-stage HCC after TACE-MWA. • The prognostic nomogram incorporating eight predictors achieved good calibration and discriminatory abilities with a concordance index of 0.770.
OBJECTIVES: To develop a prognostic nomogram based on the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade for prediction of the long-term survival of patients with intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after transarterial chemoembolization combined with microwave ablation (TACE-MWA). METHODS: We retrospectively studied 546 consecutive patients with intermediate-stage HCC according to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer guidelines who underwent TACE-MWA between January 2000 and December 2016. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were analyzed. The predictive value of the ALBI grade was investigated. The prognostic nomogram was constructed using the independent predictors assessed by the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 35.0 months (range, 4.0-221.0 months), 380 patients had died. The median OS was 35.0 months (95% confidence interval (CI), 30.84-39.16 months), and the median PFS was 6.5 months (95% CI, 6.13-6.87 months). The ALBI grade was validated as an independent predictor of OS (p < 0.001). Multivariate analyses showed that Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status score more than 0, presence of liver cirrhosis, a-fetoprotein level above 400 ng/mL, tumor size greater than 5 cm, tumor number more than 3, advanced ALBI grade, and treatment sessions of TACE or MWA fewer than 3 were independently associated with overall mortality. The prognostic nomogram incorporating these eight predictors achieved good calibration and discriminatory abilities with a concordance index of 0.770 (95% CI, 0.746-0.795). CONCLUSIONS: The prognostic nomogram based on the ALBI grade resulted in reliable efficacy for prediction of individualized OS in patients with intermediate-stage HCC after TACE-MWA. KEY POINTS: • TACE-MWA was associated with a median overall survival of 35.0 months for patients with intermediate-stage HCC. • A prognostic nomogram was built to predict individualized survival of patients with intermediate-stage HCC after TACE-MWA. • The prognostic nomogram incorporating eight predictors achieved good calibration and discriminatory abilities with a concordance index of 0.770.
Authors: Gauri Mishra; Ammar Majeed; Anouk Dev; Guy D Eslick; David J Pinato; Hirofumi Izumoto; Atsushi Hiraoka; Teh-Ia Huo; Po-Hong Liu; Philip J Johnson; Stuart K Roberts Journal: J Gastrointest Cancer Date: 2022-05-30