Prognosis in acquired aplastic anemia. An approach in the selection of patients for allogeneic bone marrow transplantation.

In a retrospective study, factors influencing the eventual course and outcome of patients suffering from aplastic anaemia were analysed. Of the 62 patients with pancytopenia concomitant with an aplastic or hypoplastic bone marrow, 36 have died during the first 24 months following diagnosis, 27 of these 36 cases within the first six months. 26 patients survived more than two years after presentation, but a further six of these cases succumbed during the following months. Of the 62 cases, 46 had neutrophil counts under 1 X 10(9)/l and platelet counts under 20 X 10(9)/l. These cases were subdivided according to their reticulocyte levels. In the age group of patients between 10 and 35 years, all those patients having more than 10,000/mul reticulocytes survived more than two years with only one exception, whereas only one of the 11 patients having reticulocyte counts below 10,000/mul has survived. In our series, the initial neutrophil and platelet counts were not of predictive value in identifying poor prognosis patients. The initial reticulocyte counts, however, appear to be a valid parameter for selecting patients in two groups, one with a favorable, and the other with an extremely unfavorable prognosis on conservative treatment. Young individuals with a poor predicted prognosis could thus be defined as possible candidates for bone marrow transplantation.