| Literature DB >> 31882805 |
Luis Jara-Palomares1, Maria Alfonso2, Ana Maestre3, David Jimenez4, Fernando Garcia-Bragado5, Carme Font6, Raquel Lopez Reyes7, Luis Hernandez Blasco8, Gemma Vidal9, Remedios Otero10, Manuel Monreal11.
Abstract
In young patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE), the predictive value of currently available prognostic tools has not been evaluated. Our objective was to compare prognostic value of 7 available tools (GPS, PESI, sPESI, Prognostic Algorithm, PREP, shock index and RIETE) in patients aged <50 years. We used the RIETE database, including PE patients from 2001 to 2017. The major outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. Of 34,651 patients with acute PE, 5,822 (17%) were aged <50 years. Of these, 83 (1.4%) died during the first 30 days. Number of patients deemed low risk with tools was: PREP (95.9%), GPS (89.6%), PESI (87.2%), Shock index (70.9%), sPESI (59.4%), Prognostic algorithm (58%) and RIETE score (48.6%). The tools with a highest sensitivity were: Prognostic Algorithm (91.6%; 95% CI: 85.6-97.5), RIETE score (90.4%; 95%CI: 84.0-96.7) and sPESI (88%; 95% CI: 81-95). The RIETE, Prognostic Algorithm and sPESI scores obtained the highest overall sensitivity estimates for also predicting 7- and 90-day all-cause mortality, 30-day PE-related mortality, 30-day major bleeding and 30-day VTE recurrences. The proportion of low-risk patients who died within the first 30 days was lowest using the Prognostic Algorithm (0.2%), RIETE (0.3%) or sPESI (0.3%) scores. In PE patients less 50 years, 30-day mortality was low. Although sPESI, RIETE and Prognostic Algorithm scores were the most sensitive tools to identify patients at low risk to die, other tools should be evaluated in this population to obtain more efficient results.Entities:
Year: 2019 PMID: 31882805 PMCID: PMC6934558 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-55213-8
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Sci Rep ISSN: 2045-2322 Impact factor: 4.379
Figure 1Flow diagram.
Clinical characteristics of the patients, according to age.
| <50 years | ≥50 years | |
|---|---|---|
| Male sex | 2,855 (49%) | 13,304 (46%) |
| Body weight, kg/m2 | 80 ± 20 | 75 ± 15 |
| Body mass index > 30 kg/m2 (N = 23,605) | 1,217 (29%) | 6,020 (31%) |
| Chronic lung disease | 224 (3.8%) | 4,716 (16%) |
| Chronic heart failure | 70 (1.2%) | 3,117 (11%) |
| Recent major bleeding | 129 (2.2%) | 684 (2.4%) |
| Active cancer | 608 (10%) | 7,110 (25%) |
| Recent surgery | 916 (16%) | 3,200 (11%) |
| Recent immobility ≥ 4 days | 925 (16%) | 6,476 (22%) |
| Pregnancy or postpartum | 297 (5.1%) | 11 (0.04%) |
| Oestrogen use | 1,400 (24%) | 460 (1.6%) |
| Recent travel | 275 (4.7%) | 598 (2.1%) |
| None of the above (unprovoked) | 2,176 (37%) | 13,752 (48%) |
| Prior VTE | 696 (12%) | 4,413 (15%) |
| Dyspnea | 4,242 (73%) | 23,591 (82%) |
| Chest pain | 3,866 (66%) | 12,128 (42%) |
| Syncope | 652 (11%) | 4,418 (15%) |
| Abnormal mental status | 90 (1.5%) | 1,433 (5.0%) |
| Heart rate ≥ 110 bpm | 1,394 (24%) | 5,639 (20%) |
| SBP levels < 100 mm Hg | 463 (8.0%) | 2,326 (8.1%) |
| Respiratory rate > 30 pm (N = 11,555) | 140 (6.8%) | 860 (9.1%) |
| Temperature < 36 °C | 116 (2.0%) | 1,008 (3.5%) |
| Sat O2 levels < 90% (N = 21,796) | 503 (16%) | 5,961 (32%) |
| Yes | 4,747 (82%) | 24,988 (87%) |
| Atrial fibrillation | 35 (0.74%) | 2,473 (9.9%) |
| Right bundle branch block | 526 (11%) | 4,491 (18%) |
| Yes | 2,808 (48%) | 11,929 (41%) |
| RV dysfunction (N = 12,714) | 505 (21%) | 2,503 (24%) |
| PAP levels > 50 mm Hg (N = 8,148) | 290 (22%) | 2,277 (33%) |
| TAPSE < 16 mm (N = 4,564) | 120 (14%) | 717 (19%) |
| Subsegmental | 146 (4.3%) | 576 (3.4%) |
| Segmental | 628 (18%) | 2,451 (14%) |
| More central | 1,563 (46%) | 7,904 (46%) |
| Not reported | 1,074 (31%) | 6,099 (36%) |
| Anemia | 1,631 (28%) | 9,696 (34%) |
| Abnormal platelet count | 369 (6.3%) | 1,653 (5.7%) |
| CrCl levels 30-60 mL/min | 116 (2.0%) | 11,467 (40%) |
| CrCl levels < 30 mL/min | 21 (0.36%) | 2,208 (7.7%) |
| Raised troponin levels (N = 15,781) | 576 (24%) | 4,959 (37%) |
| BNP levels > 100 pg/ml (N = 2,722) | 156 (44%) | 1,629 (69%) |
Comparison of risk-class-specific 30-day all-cause mortality in different prognosis tools.
| Proportion (%) | Patients (n = 5,822) | Died (n = 83) | Event rate (%) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PESI[ | Low risk | 87.2 | 5,074 | 34 | 0.7 |
| High risk | 12.8 | 748 | 49 | 6.6 | |
| sPESI[ | Low risk | 59.4 | 3,459 | 10 | 0.3 |
| High risk | 40.6 | 2,363 | 73 | 3.1 | |
| Shock Index[ | Low risk | 70.9 | 4,126 | 32 | 0.8 |
| High risk | 21.1 | 1,406 | 50 | 3.6 | |
| GPS[ | Low risk | 89.6 | 5,214 | 40 | 0.8 |
| High risk | 10.4 | 608 | 43 | 7.1 | |
| Prognostic Algorithm[ | Low risk | 58 | 3,376 | 7 | 0.2 |
| High risk | 42 | 2,446 | 76 | 3.1 | |
| PREP[ | Low risk | 95.9 | 5,584 | 66 | 1.2 |
| High risk | 4.1 | 238 | 17 | 7.1 | |
| RIETE score[ | Low risk | 48.6 | 2,828 | 8 | 0.3 |
| High risk | 51.4 | 2,994 | 75 | 2.5 |
Accuracy of the prediction rule to predict 30-day mortality in different prognosis tools.
| Sensitivity | Specificity | PPV | NPV | Accuracy | AUC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % (95% CI) | % (95% CI) | % (95% CI) | % (95% CI) | % (95% CI) | % (95% CI) | |
| PESI[ | 59.0 (48.5–69.6) | 87.8 (87–88.7) | 6.6 (4.8–8.3) | 99.3 (99.1–99.6) | 87.4 (86.6–88.3) | 0.73 (0.67–0.80) |
| sPESI[ | 88 (81–95) | 60.1 (58.8–61.4) | 3.1 (2.4–3.8) | 99.7 (99.5–99.9) | 60.5 (59.2–61.8) | 0.74 (0.70–0.78) |
| Shock Index[ | 61 (50.4–71.5) | 75.1 (74–76.3) | 3.6 (2.6–4.5) | 99.2 (99–99.5) | 74.9 (73.8–76.1) | 0.68 (0.62–0.74) |
| GPS[ | 51.8 (41.1–62.6) | 90.2 (89.4–90.9) | 7.1 (5–9.1) | 99.2 (99–99.5) | 89.6 (88.8–90.4) | 0.71 (0.64–0.78) |
| Prognostic Algorithm 24 | 91.6 (85.6–97.5) | 58.7 (57.4–60) | 3.1 (2.4–3.8) | 99.8 (99.6–99.9) | 59.1 (57.9–60.4) | 0.75 (0.71–0.79) |
| PREP[ | 20.5(11.8–29.2) | 96.2 (95.7–96.7) | 7.1 (3.9–10.4) | 98.8 (98.5–99.1) | 95.1 (94.5–95.6) | 0.58 (0.51–0.65) |
| RIETE score[ | 90.4 (84–96.7) | 49.1 (47.8–50.4) | 2.5 (2–3.1) | 99.7 (99.5–99.9) | 49.7 (48.4–51) | 0.70 (0.65–0.74) |
Thirty-day PE related mortality, major bleeding and VTE recurrences of different prognosis tools.
| 30-day PE-related mortality | 30-day major bleeding | 30-day VTE recurrences | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (n = 31) | (n = 45) | (n = 63) | ||
| N (%) | N (%) | N (%) | ||
| PESI[ | Low risk | 14 (45.2%) | 29 (64.4%) | 40 (63.5%) |
| High risk | 17 (54.8%) | 16 (35.6%) | 23 (36.5%) | |
| sPESI[ | Low risk | 5 (16.1%) | 16 (35.6%) | 22 (34.9%) |
| High risk | 26 (83.9%) | 29 (64.4%) | 41 (65.1%) | |
| Shock Index[ | Low risk | 12 (38.7%) | 26 (57.8%) | 39 (62.9%) |
| High risk | 19 (61.3%) | 19 (42.2%) | 23 (37.1%) | |
| GPS[ | Low risk | 18 (58.1%) | 35 (77.8%) | 45 (71.4%) |
| High risk | 13 (41.9%) | 10 (22.2%) | 18 (28.6%) | |
| Prognostic Algorithm[ | Low risk | 3 (9.7%) | 15 (33.3%) | 21 (33.3%) |
| High risk | 28 (90.3%) | 30 (66.7%) | 42 (66.7%) | |
| PREP[ | Low risk | 26 (83.9%) | 42 (93.3%) | 59 (93.7%) |
| High risk | 5 (16.1%) | 3 (6.7%) | 4 (6.4%) | |
| RIETE score[ | Low risk | 4 (12.9%) | 12 (26.7%) | 20 (31.8%) |
| High risk | 27 (87.1%) | 33 (73.3%) | 43 (68.3%) | |
Seven, 30 and 90-day all-cause mortality of different prognosis tools.
| 7-day all-cause mortality | 30-day all-cause mortality | 90-day all-cause mortality | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (n = 38) | (n = 83) | (n = 148) | ||
| N (%) | N (%) | N (%) | ||
| PESI[ | Low risk | 17 (44.7%) | 34 (41%) | 60 (40.5%) |
| High risk | 21 (55.3%) | 49 (59%) | 88 (59.5%) | |
| sPESI[ | Low risk | 4 (10.5%) | 10 (12.1%) | 12 (8.1%) |
| High risk | 34 (89.5%) | 73 (88%) | 136 (91.9%) | |
| Shock Index[ | Low risk | 11 (29%) | 32 (39%) | 64 (44.1%) |
| High risk | 27 (71.1%) | 50 (61%) | 81 (55.9%) | |
| GPS[ | Low risk | 21 (55.3%) | 40 (48.2%) | 71 (48%) |
| High risk | 17 (44.7%) | 43 (51.8%) | 77 (52%) | |
| Prognostic Algorithm[ | Low risk | 2 (5.3%) | 7 (8.4%) | 9 (6.1%) |
| High risk | 36 (94.7%) | 76 (91.6%) | 139 (93.9%) | |
| PREP[ | Low risk | 30 (79%) | 66 (79.5%) | 126 (85.1%) |
| High risk | 8 (21.1%) | 17 (20.5%) | 22 (14.9%) | |
| RIETE score[ | Low risk | 3 (7.9%) | 8 (9.6%) | 8 (5.4%) |
| High risk | 35 (92.1%) | 75 (90.4%) | 140 (94.6%) | |