Exploring the dynamic, forecast and decoupling effect of land natural capital utilization in the hinterland of the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China.

Natural capital utilization in ecologically sensitive areas is an important subject for ecologically sustainable quantification. Research on the natural capital flow and stock is helpful to analyze the utilization of natural capital and promote its sustainable development. Thus, we attempted to combine the three-dimensional ecological footprint model with the decoupling model and GM(1,1) model to analyze the current and future state of land natural capital utilization, and then analyze the status of decoupling between economic development and the sustainable use of the land natural capital. The results showed that: (1) Overall, the land footprint and land capacity in the hinterland of the Three Gorges Reservoir area increased. The occupation of the land natural capital flow increased, and the footprint depth first increased and then decreased. (2) The utilization ratio of capital stock to the flows of cultivated land increased, and the space for sustainable utilization of natural capital was larger. The gray prediction showed that the ratio of capital stock to the flows in all the districts and counties of the study area will increase from 2022. (3) A decoupling relationship existed between the utilization ratio of the stock flow and Gross Domestic Product as a whole, indicating that the pressure of economic development on the sustainable utilization of natural capital has always existed. This study has a certain reference value to construct an ecological civilization in the hinterland of the Three Gorges Reservoir and formulate relevant policies on the increase of rural land natural capital.