BACKGROUND: Little is known about long-term trends in outcomes of patients with ischemic stroke in China. We aimed to assess longitudinal trends in these outcomes over the past 15 years in China and explore possible factors behind the trends. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients with ischemic stroke admitted to the Department of Neurology at West China Hospital were prospectively and consecutively enrolled in a central registry since 2002, and the present study analyzed data from those admitted to hospital within 7 days of stroke during the period 2002 to 2016. Patients were binned into three 5-year intervals for temporal analysis. Death, disability, and death/disability at 3 and 12 months after stroke were compared among the time intervals across the entire sample and in subsets stratified by age (<65 or ≥65 years). To explore the possible factors related to the trends in outcomes, interaction between the factors and time on outcomes was entered separately into the multivariable logistic regression model. Of 6462 patients with ischemic stroke in the final analysis, 3837 (59.4%) were men, and mean age was 64.2 years (SD, 13.7). Mean age at stroke onset and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at admission decreased significantly during the 15-year period (P<0.001). Between 2002 to 2006 and 2012 to 2016, cumulative incidences declined significantly for death at 3 months (from 9.6% to 6.4%), disability at 3 months (from 36.8% to 28.7%), and death/disability at 3 months (from 42.9% to 33.3%), as well as for death at 12 months (from 15.9% to 10.7%), disability at 12 months (from 23.2% to 17.6%), and death/disability at 12 months (from 35.4% to 26.4%; all P<0.001). The decreases in disability and death/disability at 3 and 12 months between 2002 to 2006 and 2012 to 2016 remained significant after adjusting for confounders, and the results were similar for the entire cohort and for subgroups of patients <65 or ≥65 years. Only interactions of National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score on admission and time period (2012-2016) were found to significantly correlate with disability and death/disability at 3 and 12 months (all P≤0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Our study from a large medical center in southwest China suggests that since 2002, risks of disability and death/disability at 3 and 12 months after ischemic stroke have declined. This appears to be due, at least in part, to a significant decline in National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score on admission, which may reflect greater public awareness of stroke detection, willingness to seek medical attention, and ease of access to healthcare infrastructure. The factors behind this apparent improvement require further study.
BACKGROUND: Little is known about long-term trends in outcomes of patients with ischemic stroke in China. We aimed to assess longitudinal trends in these outcomes over the past 15 years in China and explore possible factors behind the trends. METHODS AND RESULTS:Patients with ischemic stroke admitted to the Department of Neurology at West China Hospital were prospectively and consecutively enrolled in a central registry since 2002, and the present study analyzed data from those admitted to hospital within 7 days of stroke during the period 2002 to 2016. Patients were binned into three 5-year intervals for temporal analysis. Death, disability, and death/disability at 3 and 12 months after stroke were compared among the time intervals across the entire sample and in subsets stratified by age (<65 or ≥65 years). To explore the possible factors related to the trends in outcomes, interaction between the factors and time on outcomes was entered separately into the multivariable logistic regression model. Of 6462 patients with ischemic stroke in the final analysis, 3837 (59.4%) were men, and mean age was 64.2 years (SD, 13.7). Mean age at stroke onset and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at admission decreased significantly during the 15-year period (P<0.001). Between 2002 to 2006 and 2012 to 2016, cumulative incidences declined significantly for death at 3 months (from 9.6% to 6.4%), disability at 3 months (from 36.8% to 28.7%), and death/disability at 3 months (from 42.9% to 33.3%), as well as for death at 12 months (from 15.9% to 10.7%), disability at 12 months (from 23.2% to 17.6%), and death/disability at 12 months (from 35.4% to 26.4%; all P<0.001). The decreases in disability and death/disability at 3 and 12 months between 2002 to 2006 and 2012 to 2016 remained significant after adjusting for confounders, and the results were similar for the entire cohort and for subgroups of patients <65 or ≥65 years. Only interactions of National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score on admission and time period (2012-2016) were found to significantly correlate with disability and death/disability at 3 and 12 months (all P≤0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Our study from a large medical center in southwest China suggests that since 2002, risks of disability and death/disability at 3 and 12 months after ischemic stroke have declined. This appears to be due, at least in part, to a significant decline in National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score on admission, which may reflect greater public awareness of stroke detection, willingness to seek medical attention, and ease of access to healthcare infrastructure. The factors behind this apparent improvement require further study.