Red tide at morning, tourists take warning? County-level economic effects of HABS on tourism dependent sectors.

A tourism dependent state such as Florida relies on its environment and climate to attract visitors and generate revenue. HABs can certainly have an impact on the coastal waters of the Gulf, but does this necessarily drive away tourist related activity? To determine not only if the impact of HABs is significant, but also at what magnitude, a time series econometric model was used to study effects of persistent and severe blooms on counties in Southwestern Florida, particularly Sarasota County, hit hardest by blooms in 2006 and 2018 that lasted multiple months. Lodging and restaurant sectors of the economy were found to have monthly losses of 15% and 1.75% respectively, during months when red tide was present. Neighboring counties unaffected by severe blooms did not experience significant losses to these sectors. These results support the intuition that effects of HABs reach far beyond the waters of the Gulf, and as red tide grows in frequency and severity, more economic loss could lie ahead.