The Past and Current Potential Distribution of the Fruit Fly Anastrepha obliqua (Diptera: Tephritidae) in South America.

Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart) is an agricultural pest of wide geographic distribution infesting a vast list of host species in America. However, little is known about the past geographic distribution of this species. In this study, we investigated the potential past and current distribution of species in South America. In this sense, the MaxEnt algorithm was used to model the ecological niche of the species in the past (Last Interglcial Maximum; Last Glacial Maximum) and current periods. The results suggested that under the current climatic conditions, A. obliqua showed high environmental suitability to become established in most South American countries, especially in Brazil. The lowest suitability indices were observed in Chile, Argentina, and Uruguay. The past analysis for Last Glacial Maximum revealed that there was no significant change in the distribution potential of the species when compared to the current model; however, in the Last Interglacial Maximum period, there was a large reduction in the areas of suitability for the species when compared to the current and Last Glacial Maximum distribution models. The analysis also revealed vast areas of refuges for the species mainly on the coast of Brazil, as well as Venezuela, Bolivia, Guyana, and Surinam. The results presented here may be useful for future phylogeographical studies in order to test if the refuge areas concentrate greater genetic diversity for this species. In addition, our study provides important information for understanding the current dynamics of A. obliqua, which may be useful for control programs in places where this species can become a pest.