Carren Ginsburg1, Philippe Bocquier2,1, Donatien Béguy3, Sulaimon Afolabi1, Karim Derra4, Orvalho Augusto5, Mark Otiende6, Frank Odhiambo7,8, Pascal Zabré9, Abdramane Soura10, Michael J White11,1, Mark A Collinson1,12,8. 1. Medical Research Council/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa. 2. Centre de Recherche en Démographie et Sociétés, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. 3. African Population and Health Research Centre, Nairobi, Kenya. 4. Clinical Research Unit of Nanoro (CRUN), Nanoro, Burkina Faso. 5. Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça, CISM, Manhiςa, Mozambique. 6. Kenya Medical Research Institute, Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya. 7. KEMRI & CDC - Centre for Global Health Research, Kisumu, Kenya. 8. INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana. 9. Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna, Nouna, Burkina Faso. 10. Institut Supérieur des Sciences de la Population (ISSP), Université de Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. 11. Population Studies and Training Centre, Brown University, U.S.A. 12. Umeå Centre for Global Health Research, Umeå University, Sweden.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Education, as a key indicator of human capital, is considered one of the major determinants of internal migration, with previous studies suggesting that human capital accumulates in urban areas at the expense of rural areas. However, there is fragmentary evidence concerning the educational correlates of internal migration in sub-Saharan Africa. OBJECTIVES: The study questions whether more precise measures of migration in Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) populations support the hypothesis that migrants are self-selected on human capital and more educated people are more likely to leave rural areas or enter urban areas within a geographical region. METHODS: Using unique longitudinal data representing approximately 900,000 people living in eight sub-Saharan African HDSS sites that are members of the INDEPTH Network, the paper uses Event History Analysis techniques to examine the relationship between formal educational attainment and in-and out-migration, over the period 2009 to 2011. RESULTS: Between 7% and 27% of these local populations are moving in or out of the HDSS area over this period. Education is positively associated with both in-and out-migration in the Kenyan HDSS areas; however, the education effect has no clear pattern in the HDSS sites in Burkina Faso, Mozambique, and South Africa. CONCLUSIONS: Empirical results presented in this paper confirm a strong age profile of migration consistent with human capital expectation, yet the results point to variability in the association of education and the propensity to migrate. In particular, the hypothesis of a shift of human capital from rural to urban areas is not universally valid.
BACKGROUND: Education, as a key indicator of human capital, is considered one of the major determinants of internal migration, with previous studies suggesting that human capital accumulates in urban areas at the expense of rural areas. However, there is fragmentary evidence concerning the educational correlates of internal migration in sub-Saharan Africa. OBJECTIVES: The study questions whether more precise measures of migration in Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) populations support the hypothesis that migrants are self-selected on human capital and more educated people are more likely to leave rural areas or enter urban areas within a geographical region. METHODS: Using unique longitudinal data representing approximately 900,000 people living in eight sub-Saharan African HDSS sites that are members of the INDEPTH Network, the paper uses Event History Analysis techniques to examine the relationship between formal educational attainment and in-and out-migration, over the period 2009 to 2011. RESULTS: Between 7% and 27% of these local populations are moving in or out of the HDSS area over this period. Education is positively associated with both in-and out-migration in the Kenyan HDSS areas; however, the education effect has no clear pattern in the HDSS sites in Burkina Faso, Mozambique, and South Africa. CONCLUSIONS: Empirical results presented in this paper confirm a strong age profile of migration consistent with human capital expectation, yet the results point to variability in the association of education and the propensity to migrate. In particular, the hypothesis of a shift of human capital from rural to urban areas is not universally valid.
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