| Literature DB >> 31752938 |
Atsushi Shiraishi1,2, Yasuhiro Otomo3, Shunsuke Yoshikawa3, Koji Morishita3, Ian Roberts4, Hiroki Matsui5,6.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Multiple trauma scores have been developed and validated, including the Revised Trauma Score (RTS) and the Mechanism, Glasgow Coma Scale, Age, and Arterial Pressure (MGAP) score. However, these scores are complex to calculate or have low prognostic abilities for trauma mortality. Therefore, we aimed to develop and validate a trauma score that is easier to calculate and more accurate than the RTS and the MGAP score.Entities:
Keywords: In-hospital mortality; MGAP score; Prognostic accuracy study; Revised Trauma Score; Trauma registry; Trauma score
Mesh:
Year: 2019 PMID: 31752938 PMCID: PMC6868841 DOI: 10.1186/s13054-019-2636-x
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Crit Care ISSN: 1364-8535 Impact factor: 9.097
Fig. 1Study participant selection tree. Outlier removal from numerical variables and multiple imputation was applied after the selection of trauma subjects in the JTDB derivation cohort. Exclusion criteria for the JTDB derivation cohort were determined based on patient background characteristics before outlier removal and multiple imputation and were applied after outlier removal and multiple imputation. JTDB, the Japan Trauma Databank; CRASH-2 Clinical Randomisation of an Antifibrinolytic in Significant Haemorrhage-2
Baseline characteristics of the study population
| Variables | JTDB derivation cohort | JTDB validation cohort | CRASH-2 validation cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of subjects | 99,867 | 110,885 | 20,197 |
| Multiple imputation | Yes | No | No |
| Sex, | |||
| Male | 63,177 (63.3) | 68,132 (61.4) | 16,927 (83.8) |
| Female | 36,690 (36.7) | 42,727 (38.5) | 3269 (16.2) |
| Missing data | 0 (0.0) | 26 (0.0) | 1 (0.0) |
| Age, years [range] | 61 [39, 76] | 63 [41, 78] | 30 [24, 43] |
| Missing data, | 0 (0.0) | 0 (0.0) | 0 (0.0) |
| Type of trauma, | |||
| Blunt injury | 95,943 (96.1) | 104,110 (93.9) | 11,184 (55.4) |
| Penetrating injury | 3745 (3.7) | 3658 (3.3) | 6549 (32.4) |
| Blunt and penetrating injury | 178 (0.2) | 158 (0.1) | 2464 (12.2) |
| Missing data | 1 (0.0) | 2959 (2.7) | 0 (0.0) |
| Physiological signs on arrival at an emergency department | |||
| Systolic blood pressure, mmHg [range] | 132 [110, 155] | 135 [115, 156] | 95 [80, 110] |
| Missing data, | 0 (0.0) | 4014 (3.6) | 318 (1.6) |
| Heart rate, beats/min [range] | 81 [70, 96] | 82 [70, 95] | 105 [90, 120] |
| Missing data, | 0 (0.0) | 5594 (5.0) | 137 (0.7) |
| Respiratory rate, rate/min [range] | 20 [16, 24] | 20 [16, 24] | 22 [20, 26] |
| Missing data, | 0 (0.0) | 17,539 (15.8) | 191 (0.9) |
| Glasgow Coma Scale | 15 [13, 15] | 15 [14, 15] | 15 [11, 15] |
| Missing data, | 0 (0.0) | 9884 (8.9) | 23 (0.1) |
| Traumatic brain injury, | 30,666 (30.7) | 30,893 (27.9) | Not available |
| Missing data, | 0 (0.0) | 7515 (6.8) | Not available |
| Injury Severity Score | 13 [9, 22] | 10 [9, 20] | Not available |
| Missing data, | 0 (0.0) | 8226 (7.4) | Not available |
Categorical variables are displayed as count with percentage, and continuous variables are displayed as median with 25th–75th interquartile range. Traumatic brain injury was defined as having the abbreviated injury scale of ≥ 3 on the head region
JTDB Japan Trauma Databank, CRASH-2 Clinical Randomisation of an Antifibrinolytic in Significant Haemorrhage-2, mmHg millimeter of mercury
Fig. 2Non-linear association of physiological status variables and in-hospital mortality in a multivariable generalized additive model. A multivariable generalized additive model (GAM), which included age, systolic blood pressure, Glasgow Coma Scale, and respiratory rate on arrival at the emergency department as explanatory variables and in-hospital mortality as a response variable on the JTDB derivation cohort, estimated the non-linear regression curve with a logit link function. GAM plots were estimated and integrated across multiply imputed datasets with a number of knots of 10; line, point estimate; dotted line, upper and lower margin of 95% confidence interval
Predictors at presentation associated with in-hospital death in the Japan Trauma Databank derivation cohort
| Predictors | Beta [95%CI] | Variance infraction factor | Integerized score point | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intercept | − 5.00 [− 5.10, − 4.90] | < 0.001 | ||
| Age, years | ||||
| 16–54 | Reference | 0 | ||
| 55–74 | 0.70 [0.62, 0.78] | 1.45 | < 0.001 | 1 |
| 75+ | 1.13 [1.05, 1.21] | 1.53 | < 0.001 | 2 |
| Glasgow Coma Scale | ||||
| 3 | 4.19 [4.07, 4.31] | 1.82 | < 0.001 | 6 |
| 4 | 3.63 [3.46, 3.80] | 1.25 | < 0.001 | 5 |
| 5–7 | 2.91 [2.80, 3.02] | 1.64 | < 0.001 | 4 |
| 8–11 | 2.12 [2.01, 2.23] | 1.56 | < 0.001 | 3 |
| 12–13 | 1.43 [1.31, 1.55] | 1.45 | < 0.001 | 2 |
| 14 | 0.86 [0.75, 0.98] | 1.49 | < 0.001 | 1 |
| 15 | Reference | 0 | ||
| Respiratory rate, 1/min | ||||
| 0–3 | 1.63 [1.42, 1.84] | 1.42 | < 0.001 | 2 |
| 4–11 | 0.54 [0.37, 0.71] | 1.03 | < 0.001 | 1 |
| 12–27 | Reference | 0 | ||
| 28+ | 0.56 [0.48, 0.64] | 1.07 | < 0.001 | 1 |
| Systolic blood pressure, mmHg | ||||
| 0–49 | 2.66 [2.52, 2.80] | 1.37 | < 0.001 | 4 |
| 50–79 | 1.31 [1.19, 1.42] | 1.05 | < 0.001 | 2 |
| 80–99 | 0.67 [0.56, 0.77] | 1.05 | < 0.001 | 1 |
| 100–199 | Reference | 0 | ||
| 200+ | 0.58 [0.45, 0.71] | 1.03 | < 0.001 | 1 |
Continuous predictor variables are categorized based on the regression coefficient (beta) estimated using logistic regression analysis. Integerized score points were assigned as every 0.67 of the magnitude of beta
95%CI 95% confidence interval, mmHg millimeter of mercury
Comparisons of prognostic accuracy and reclassification improvement based on tested scores
| Analyses | Metrics of score performance | Bootstrap comparisons | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRIAGES score | RTS | MGAP score | TRIAGES score versus RTS | TRIAGES score versus MGAP score | |||
| Difference [95%CI] | Difference [95%CI] | ||||||
| Primary analysis | |||||||
| Area under curve | |||||||
| JTDB validation cohort ( | 0.932 | 0.907 | 0.918 | 0.025 [0.023, 0.028] | < 0.001 | 0.014 [0.012, 0.016] | < 0.001 |
| CRASH-2 cohort ( | 0.814 | 0.808 | 0.774 | 0.006 [0.001, 0.011] | 0.010 | 0.040 [0.033, 0.047] | < 0.001 |
| Sensitivity analyses for the primary analysis | |||||||
| Area under curve | |||||||
| Multiple imputation | |||||||
| JTDB validation cohort ( | 0.917 | 0.894 | 0.902 | 0.023 [0.020, 0.025] | < 0.001 | 0.015 [0.013, 0.017] | < 0.001 |
| CRASH-2 cohort ( | 0.816 | 0.810 | 0.776 | 0.006 [0.002, 0.011] | 0.006 | 0.040 [0.034, 0.046] | < 0.001 |
| Single imputation by the best value | |||||||
| JTDB validation cohort ( | 0.911 | 0.889 | 0.899 | 0.022 [0.019, 0.024] | < 0.001 | 0.012 [0.009, 0.014] | < 0.001 |
| CRASH-2 cohort ( | 0.813 | 0.806 | 0.776 | 0.006 [0.002, 0.011] | 0.006 | 0.037 [0.031, 0.043] | < 0.001 |
| Prehospital variables | |||||||
| JTDB validation cohort ( | 0.858 | 0.786 | 0.833 | 0.072 [0.066, 0.078] | < 0.001 | 0.025 [0.021, 0.030] | < 0.001 |
| Secondary analyses | |||||||
| Partial area under curve (sensitivity ≥ 0.9) | |||||||
| JTDB validation cohort ( | 0.764 | 0.652 | 0.722 | 0.112 [0.102, 0.121] | < 0.001 | 0.042 [0.033, 0.050] | < 0.001 |
| CRASH-2 cohort ( | 0.629 | 0.592 | 0.560 | 0.037 [0.026, 0.048] | < 0.001 | 0.069 [0.057, 0.081] | < 0.001 |
| Net reclassification improvement | |||||||
| JTDB validation cohort ( | 0.465 [0.441, 0.489] | < 0.001 | 0.422 [0.396, 0.447] | < 0.001 | |||
| CRASH-2 cohort ( | 0.230 [0.177, 0.312] | 0.004 | 0.239 [0.176, 0.318] | < 0.001 | |||
Point estimation with 95%CI and P values of the metrics of score performance were computed by bootstrap estimation repeated 20,000 times (800 times per each dataset if bootstrapping was performed on multiply imputed datasets)
TRIAGES Trauma Rating Index in Age, Glasgow Coma Scale, Respiratory rate and Systolic blood pressure; RTS Revised Trauma Score; MGAP Mechanism, Glasgow Coma Scale, Age, and Arterial Pressure; 95%CI 95% confidence interval; JTDB Japan Trauma Databank; CRASH-2 Clinical Randomisation of an Antifibrinolytic in Significant Haemorrhage-2