Shinya Tsuzuki1, Marc Baguelin2, Richard Pebody3, Edwin van Leeuwen3. 1. Disease Control and Prevention Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan; Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium; Respiratory Diseases Department, Public Health England, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: stsuzuki@hosp.ncgm.go.jp. 2. Respiratory Diseases Department, Public Health England, London, United Kingdom; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, W2 1PG, United Kingdom; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom. 3. Respiratory Diseases Department, Public Health England, London, United Kingdom.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: In Japan, the current influenza vaccination programme is targeting older individuals. On the other hand, epidemics of influenza are likely to be mainly driven by children. In this study, we consider the most cost-effective target age group for a seasonal influenza vaccination programme in Japan. METHODS: We constructed a deterministic compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model with data from the 2012/13 to 2014/15 influenza seasons in Japan. Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo method was used for parameter estimation. Cost-effectiveness analyses were conducted from public health care payer's perspective. RESULTS: A scenario targeting children under 15 was expected to reduce the number of cases 6,382,345 compared to the current strategy. A scenario targeting elderly population (age over 49 years) was expected to reduce the number of cases 693,206. The children targeted scenario demonstrated negative ICER (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio) value. On the other hand, elderly targeted scenario demonstrated higher ICER value than the willingness to pay (50,000 USD/QALY). CONCLUSIONS: A vaccination programme which targets children under 15 is predicted to have much larger epidemiological impact than those targeting elderly.
BACKGROUND: In Japan, the current influenza vaccination programme is targeting older individuals. On the other hand, epidemics of influenza are likely to be mainly driven by children. In this study, we consider the most cost-effective target age group for a seasonal influenza vaccination programme in Japan. METHODS: We constructed a deterministic compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model with data from the 2012/13 to 2014/15 influenza seasons in Japan. Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo method was used for parameter estimation. Cost-effectiveness analyses were conducted from public health care payer's perspective. RESULTS: A scenario targeting children under 15 was expected to reduce the number of cases 6,382,345 compared to the current strategy. A scenario targeting elderly population (age over 49 years) was expected to reduce the number of cases 693,206. The children targeted scenario demonstrated negative ICER (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio) value. On the other hand, elderly targeted scenario demonstrated higher ICER value than the willingness to pay (50,000 USD/QALY). CONCLUSIONS: A vaccination programme which targets children under 15 is predicted to have much larger epidemiological impact than those targeting elderly.
Authors: Piyameth Dilokthornsakul; Le My Lan; Ammarin Thakkinstian; Raymond Hutubessy; Philipp Lambach; Nathorn Chaiyakunapruk Journal: EClinicalMedicine Date: 2022-04-21
Authors: Edward M Hill; Stavros Petrou; Henry Forster; Simon de Lusignan; Ivelina Yonova; Matt J Keeling Journal: PLoS Comput Biol Date: 2020-10-06 Impact factor: 4.475