NW Iberian Peninsula coastal upwelling future weakening: Competition between wind intensification and surface heating.

Climate change will modify the oceanographic future properties of the NW Iberian Peninsula due to the projected variations in the meteorological forcing, that will intensify local winds and promote surface heating. The Delft3D-Flow model forced with atmospheric conditions provided within the framework of the CORDEX project under the RCP 8.5 greenhouse emission scenario was used to analyse changes in upwelling. Numerical experiments were conducted under high-extreme upwelling conditions for the historical (1976-2005) and future (2070-2099) period. This study also innovates through the exploitation of a numerical modelling approach that includes both shelf and estuarine processes along the coastal zone. Coastal upwelling will be less effective in the future despite the enhancement of upwelling favorable wind patterns previously predicted for this region. Upwelling weakening is due to the future sea surface warming that will increase the stratification of the upper layers hindering the upward displacement of the underlying water, reducing the surface input of nutrients.