Risk-based decision making to evaluate pollutant reduction scenarios.

A total maximum daily load (TMDL) is required for water bodies in the U.S. that do not meet applicable water quality standards. Computational watershed models are often used to develop TMDL pollutant reduction scenarios. Uncertainty is inherent in the modeling process. An explicit uncertainty analysis would improve model performance and result in more robust decision making when comparing alternative pollutant reduction scenarios. This paper presents a risk-based framework for evaluating alternative pollutant allocation scenarios considering reliability in achieving water quality goals. We demonstrate a generic routine for the application of Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) to Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) using existing softwares to evaluate two bacteria reduction scenarios from a recently developed TMDL that addressed a bacterial impairment in a mixed land use watershed in Virginia, U.S. Our probabilistic analysis showed that for reliability levels <25%, the recommended TMDL bacterial load reduction scenario had the same exceedance rate as the full reduction scenario (fully reducing all bacterial loads except wildlife), while for reliability levels between 25% and 50%, the exceedance rates for the two pollutant reduction scenarios were similar, with the TMDL recommended scenario violating the water quality criteria only slightly more often. The full reduction scenario performed better in higher reliability levels, although it could not meet the water quality criteria. Our results indicated that, in this case, achieving water quality goals with very high reliability was not possible, even with extreme levels of pollutant reduction. The risk-based framework presented here illustrates a method to propagate watershed model uncertainty and assess performance of alternative pollutant reduction scenarios using existing tools, thereby enabling decision makers to understand the reliability of a given scenario in achieving water quality goals.