Fahmi Al-Senani1, Mohamed Al-Johani1, Mohammad Salawati1, Adel Alhazzani2, Lewis B Morgenstern3, Valeska Seguel Ravest4, Matthieu Cuche5, Simon Eggington6. 1. Department of Neurology, National Neurosciences Institute, King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. 2. College of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. 3. Stroke Program and the Center for Social Epidemiology and Population Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan. 4. Neurovascular Health Economics and Reimbursement, Medtronic UK, Watford, United Kingdom. 5. Neurovascular Health Economics and Reimbursement, Medtronic International Trading Sárl, Tolochenaz, Switzerland. 6. Corporate Health Economics and Reimbursement, Medtronic International Trading Sárl, Tolochenaz, Switzerland. Electronic address: simon.eggington@medtronic.com.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has a young but ageing population, leading to concerns for planning for future growth in the number of strokes to provide necessary care. An understanding of the expected evolution of stroke incidence is therefore necessary to plan infrastructure changes. Our aim was to predict the number of first strokes occurring in Saudi Arabia over a 10-year period. METHODS: An epidemiological model was developed, using local mortality and population data to model changes in the population. Gender- and age-specific stroke rates were then applied to the population projections to estimate the number of first strokes occurring over a 10-year period. Stroke incidence data from a range of sources were applied to obtain a plausible range for the change in expected number of first strokes. RESULTS: The model predicted population growth of 12.8% over the 10-year period. Depending on the stroke incidence data applied, the number of first strokes occurring during this time was predicted to increase within the range 57%-67%. CONCLUSIONS: A growing and ageing population is expected to lead to a substantial increase in the number of first strokes occurring in Saudi Arabia in the coming decade. Our results suggest that stroke care services will need to be expanded to continue to ensure high quality care, and that strategies for stroke prevention will play an important role in reducing the overall burden. This type of analysis can be applied to other countries' stroke policy planning.
BACKGROUND: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has a young but ageing population, leading to concerns for planning for future growth in the number of strokes to provide necessary care. An understanding of the expected evolution of stroke incidence is therefore necessary to plan infrastructure changes. Our aim was to predict the number of first strokes occurring in Saudi Arabia over a 10-year period. METHODS: An epidemiological model was developed, using local mortality and population data to model changes in the population. Gender- and age-specific stroke rates were then applied to the population projections to estimate the number of first strokes occurring over a 10-year period. Stroke incidence data from a range of sources were applied to obtain a plausible range for the change in expected number of first strokes. RESULTS: The model predicted population growth of 12.8% over the 10-year period. Depending on the stroke incidence data applied, the number of first strokes occurring during this time was predicted to increase within the range 57%-67%. CONCLUSIONS: A growing and ageing population is expected to lead to a substantial increase in the number of first strokes occurring in Saudi Arabia in the coming decade. Our results suggest that stroke care services will need to be expanded to continue to ensure high quality care, and that strategies for stroke prevention will play an important role in reducing the overall burden. This type of analysis can be applied to other countries' stroke policy planning.
Authors: Reem Bakraa; Ruba Aldhaheri; Mada Barashid; Sarah Benafeef; Maram Alzahrani; Rasha Bajaba; Samah Alshehri; Mohannad Alshibani Journal: Int J Gen Med Date: 2021-08-05
Authors: Mohammad H Rahbar; Martin Medrano; Franck Diaz-Garelli; Cosme Gonzalez Villaman; Sepideh Saroukhani; Sori Kim; Amirali Tahanan; Yahaira Franco; Gelanys Castro-Tejada; Sarah A Diaz; Manouchehr Hessabi; Sean I Savitz Journal: Ann Clin Transl Neurol Date: 2022-02-09 Impact factor: 4.511
Authors: Zohair A Al Aseri; Fahmi M Al-Senani; Shaik S Ahmed; Amena F Almubarak; Dina A Alzahrani; Fatimah A A Alzaher; Maha A Altuwaijri; Mayar A Alsudais; Rawan Z Mahgoub; Othman Solaiman Journal: Neurosciences (Riyadh) Date: 2021-07 Impact factor: 0.906