Predictions of ruminal outflow of essential amino acids in dairy cattle.

The objective of this work was to update and evaluate predictions of essential AA (EAA) outflows from the rumen. The model was constructed based on previously derived equations for rumen-undegradable (RUP), microbial (MiCP), and endogenous (EndCP) protein outflows from the rumen, and revised estimates of ingredient composition and EAA composition of the protein fractions. Corrections were adopted to account for incomplete recovery of EAA during 24-h acid hydrolysis. The predicted ruminal protein and EAA outflows were evaluated against a data set of observed values from the literature. Initial evaluations indicated a minor mean bias for non-ammonia, non-microbial nitrogen flow ([RUP + EndCP]/6.25) of 16 g of N per day. Root mean squared errors (RMSE) of EAA predictions ranged from 26.8 to 40.6% of observed mean values. Concordance correlation coefficients (CCC) of EAA predictions ranged from 0.34 to 0.55. Except for Leu, all ruminal EAA outflows were overpredicted by 3.0 to 32 g/d. In addition, small but significant slope biases were present for Arg [2.2% mean squared error (MSE)] and Lys (3.2% MSE). The overpredictions may suggest that the mean recovery of AA from acid hydrolysis across laboratories was less than estimates encompassed in the recovery factors. To test this hypothesis, several regression approaches were undertaken to identify potential causes of the bias. These included regressions of (1) residual errors for predicted EAA flows on each of the 3 protein-driven EA flows, (2) observed EAA flows on each protein-driven EAA flow, including an intercept, (3) observed EAA flows on the protein-driven EAA flows, excluding an intercept term, and (4) observed EAA flows on RUP and MiCP. However, these equations were deemed unsatisfactory for bias adjustment, as they generated biologically unfeasible predictions for some entities. Future work should focus on identifying the cause of the observed prediction bias.