Free care: a quantitative analysis of health and cost effects of a national health program for the United States.

We estimate the health and cost effects of instituting a National Health Program (NHP) in the United States that would provide universal, comprehensive free care. Based on empiric studies of the relationship of health service use to cost and health outcomes, we estimate that an NHP would increase use of health services by 14.6 percent and save between 47,000 and 106,000 lives annually. Because the United States faces a growing surplus of hospital beds and physicians, additional services could be provided at low cost. Simplifying the health bureaucracy that currently enforces unequal access to care would also result in substantial savings. Consequently, an NHP would actually decrease costs 2.4 percent, $10.2 billion annually, since the $35.7 billion spent for additional services would be offset by $45.9 billion saved on bureaucracy.