Diamantis I Tsilimigras1, Rittal Mehta1, Dimitrios Moris1, Kota Sahara1, Fabio Bagante1,2, Anghela Z Paredes1, Ayesha Farooq1, Francesca Ratti3, Hugo P Marques4, Silvia Silva4, Olivier Soubrane5, Vincent Lam6, George A Poultsides7, Irinel Popescu8, Razvan Grigorie8, Sorin Alexandrescu8, Guillaume Martel9, Aklile Workneh9, Alfredo Guglielmi2, Tom Hugh10, Luca Aldrighetti3, Itaru Endo11, Timothy M Pawlik12. 1. Department of Surgery, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, Columbus, OH, USA. 2. Department of Surgery, University of Verona, Verona, Italy. 3. Department of Surgery, Ospedale San Raffaele, Milan, Italy. 4. Department of Surgery, Curry Cabral Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal. 5. Department of Hepatobiliopancreatic Surgery, APHP, Beaujon Hospital, Clichy, France. 6. Department of Surgery, Westmead Hospital, Sydney, NSW, Australia. 7. Department of Surgery, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. 8. Department of Surgery, Fundeni Clinical Institute, Bucharest, Romania. 9. Department of Surgery, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada. 10. Department of Surgery, The University of Sydney, School of Medicine, Sydney, NSW, Australia. 11. Yokohama City University School of Medicine, Yokohama, Japan. 12. Department of Surgery, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, Columbus, OH, USA. tim.pawlik@osumc.edu.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: There is an ongoing debate about expanding the resection criteria for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) guidelines. We sought to determine the factors that held the most prognostic weight in the pre- and postoperative setting for each BCLC stage by applying a machine learning method. METHODS: Patients who underwent resection for BCLC-0, A and B HCC between 2000 and 2017 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. A Classification and Regression Tree (CART) model was used to generate homogeneous groups of patients relative to overall survival (OS) based on pre- and postoperative factors. RESULTS: Among 976 patients, 63 (6.5%) had BCLC-0, 745 (76.3%) had BCLC-A, and 168 (17.2%) had BCLC-B HCC. Five-year OS among BCLC-0/A and BCLC-B patients was 64.2% versus 50.2%, respectively (p = 0.011). The preoperative CART model selected α-fetoprotein (AFP) and Charlson comorbidity score (CCS) as the first and second most important preoperative factors of OS among BCLC-0/A patients, whereas radiologic tumor burden score (TBS) was the best predictor of OS among BCLC-B patients. The postoperative CART model revealed lymphovascular invasion as the best postoperative predictor of OS among BCLC-0/A patients, whereas TBS remained the best predictor of long-term outcomes among BCLC-B patients in the postoperative setting. On multivariable analysis, pathologic TBS independently predicted worse OS among BCLC-0/A (hazard ratio [HR] 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.07) and BCLC-B patients (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.06-1.19) undergoing resection. CONCLUSION: Prognostic stratification of patients undergoing resection for HCC within and beyond the BCLC resection criteria should include assessment of AFP and comorbidities for BCLC-0/A patients, as well as tumor burden for BCLC-B patients.
BACKGROUND: There is an ongoing debate about expanding the resection criteria for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) guidelines. We sought to determine the factors that held the most prognostic weight in the pre- and postoperative setting for each BCLC stage by applying a machine learning method. METHODS:Patients who underwent resection for BCLC-0, A and B HCC between 2000 and 2017 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. A Classification and Regression Tree (CART) model was used to generate homogeneous groups of patients relative to overall survival (OS) based on pre- and postoperative factors. RESULTS: Among 976 patients, 63 (6.5%) had BCLC-0, 745 (76.3%) had BCLC-A, and 168 (17.2%) had BCLC-B HCC. Five-year OS among BCLC-0/A and BCLC-B patients was 64.2% versus 50.2%, respectively (p = 0.011). The preoperative CART model selected α-fetoprotein (AFP) and Charlson comorbidity score (CCS) as the first and second most important preoperative factors of OS among BCLC-0/A patients, whereas radiologic tumor burden score (TBS) was the best predictor of OS among BCLC-B patients. The postoperative CART model revealed lymphovascular invasion as the best postoperative predictor of OS among BCLC-0/A patients, whereas TBS remained the best predictor of long-term outcomes among BCLC-B patients in the postoperative setting. On multivariable analysis, pathologic TBS independently predicted worse OS among BCLC-0/A (hazard ratio [HR] 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.07) and BCLC-B patients (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.06-1.19) undergoing resection. CONCLUSION: Prognostic stratification of patients undergoing resection for HCC within and beyond the BCLC resection criteria should include assessment of AFP and comorbidities for BCLC-0/A patients, as well as tumor burden for BCLC-B patients.
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