| Literature DB >> 31694292 |
Mohammed Anouar Belaid1, Maria Rodriguez-Prado1, Eric Chevaux2, Sergio Calsamiglia1.
Abstract
Bulls (n = 770, average age = 127 days, SD = 53 days of age) were fitted with an activity monitoring device for three months to study if behavior could be used for early detection of diseases. The device measured the number of steps, lying time, lying bouts, and frequency and time of attendance at the feed bunk. All healthy bulls (n = 699) throughout the trial were used to describe the normal behavior. A match-pair test was used to assign healthy bulls for the comparison vs. sick bulls. The model was developed with 70% of the data, and the remaining 30% was used for the validation. Healthy bulls did 2422 ± 128 steps/day, had 28 ± 1 lying bouts/day, spent 889 ± 12 min/day lying, and attended the feed bunk 8 ± 0.2 times/d for a total of 95 ± 8 min/day. From the total of bulls enrolled in the study, 71 (9.2%) were diagnosed sick. Their activities changed at least 10 days before the clinical signs of disease. Bulls at risk of becoming sick were predicted 9 days before clinical signs with a sensitivity and specificity of 79% and 81%, respectively. The validation of the model resulted in a sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 92%, 42%, and 82 %, respectively, and a 50% false positive and 12.5% false negative rates. Results suggest that activity-monitoring systems may be useful in the early identification of sick bulls. However, the high false positive rate may require further refinement.Entities:
Keywords: activity monitoring; beef cattle; behavior; diseases
Year: 2019 PMID: 31694292 PMCID: PMC6912257 DOI: 10.3390/ani9110924
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Animals (Basel) ISSN: 2076-2615 Impact factor: 2.752
Figure 1Daily steps counts n/day (A), frequency of meals n/day (B), attendance at the feed bunk min/day (C), number of lying bouts n/day (D) and lying time min/day (E) in healthy bulls from 127 to 217 days of life.
Figure 2Daily steps counts n/day (A), frequency of meals at the feed bunk n/day (B), attendance at the feed bunk min/day (C), number of lying bouts n/day (D), and time lying min/day (E) for of sick bulls (n = 33) vs. matched paired healthy bulls (n = 99) from 10 days before to 10 days after the first treatment event. Means within day differ (*; p < 0.05) or tended to differ (†; 0.05 < p < 0.10).
The probability level for the effect of health status, days before sickness, season, and the interaction between health status and days of sickness on the daily steps counts (n/day), frequency of meals at the feed bunk (n/day), attendance at the feed bunk (min/day), number of lying bouts (n/day), and lying time (min/day) for sick bulls (n = 71) vs. matched paired healthy control bulls (n = 213).
| Predictive Variables | Steps Counts | Frequency of Meals | Attendance to the Feed Bunk | Lying Bouts | Lying Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | <0.05 | <0.10 | 0.12 | >0.05 | <0.05 |
| Age | <0.05 | <0.05 | <0.05 | >0.05 | >0.05 |
| Days | <0.05 | <0.05 | <0.05 | <0.05 | <0.05 |
| Health status | <0.05 | <0.05 | <0.05 | <0.05 | <0.05 |
| Days × health status | >0.05 | >0.05 | <0.05 | <0.10 | >0.05 |
Outcomes of the diagnostic test characteristic resulting from the prediction models of the training database from days before the treatment event of sick bulls.
| Days 1 | AUC 2 | Accuracy, % | Se 3, % | Sp 4, % | FPR 5, % | FNR 6, % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10 | 0.86 | 80 | 84 | 78 | 42 | 7 |
| −9 | 0.88 | 81 | 79 | 81 | 47 | 6 |
| −8 | 0.79 | 75 | 72 | 76 | 57 | 9 |
| −7 | 0.81 | 71 | 74 | 71 | 61 | 9 |
| −6 | 0.83 | 70 | 80 | 67 | 62 | 7 |
| −5 | 0.80 | 66 | 69 | 66 | 66 | 11 |
| −4 | 0.76 | 70 | 69 | 71 | 63 | 10 |
| −3 | 0.86 | 79 | 82 | 78 | 50 | 6 |
| −2 | 0.87 | 76 | 83 | 75 | 55 | 6 |
| −1 | 0.84 | 75 | 76 | 75 | 56 | 8 |
1 Days before the sick bull diagnostic. 2 Area under the curve. 3 Sensitivity. 4 Specificity. 5 False positive rate. 6 False negative rate.
The analysis of maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters of the prediction model for d −9.
| Parameter | Estimate | Standard Error | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intercept | 8.512 | 3.1704 | < 0.05 |
| Age at entry, days | 0.017 | 0.0090 | > 0.05 |
| Attendance to the feed bunk, min/day | −0.036 | 0.0112 | < 0.05 |
| Lying bouts, n/day | −0.127 | 0.0429 | < 0.05 |
| Lying time, min/day | −0.006 | 0.0030 | < 0.05 |