A WRF-Chem model-based future vehicle emission control policy simulation and assessment for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China.

Using 2025 as the target year, we quantitatively assessed the reduction potentials of emissions of primary pollutants (including CO, HC, NOx, PM2.5 and PM10) under different vehicle control policies and the impacts of vehicle emission control policies in the BTH region on the regional PM2.5 concentration in winter and the surface ozone (O3) concentration in summer. Comparing the different scenarios, we found that (1) vehicle control policies will bring significant reductions in the emissions of primary pollutants. Among the individual policies, upgrading new vehicle emission standards and fuel quality in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei will be the most effective policy, with emission reductions of primary pollutants of 26.3%-54.7%, 38.0%-70.3% and 46.0%-81.6% in 2025, respectively; (2) for PM2.5 in winter, the Combined Scenario (CS) will lead to a reduction of 0.5-3.9 μg m-3 (3.5%-11.6%) for the monthly average PM2.5 concentrations in most areas. The monthly nitrate and ammonium concentrations would reduce by 5.8% and 5.3%, respectively, in the whole BTH region, indicating that vehicle emission control policies may play an important role in the reduction of PM2.5 concentrations in winter, especially for nitrate aerosols; and (3) for O3 concentrations in summer, vehicle emission control policies will lead to significant decreases. Under the CS scenario, the maximum reduction of monthly average O3 concentrations in the summer is approximately 3.6 ppb (5.9%). Most areas in the BTH region have a decrease of 15 ppb (7.5%) in peak values compared to the base scenario. However, in some VOC-sensitive areas in the BTH region, such as the southern urban areas, significant reductions in NOx may lead to increases in ozone concentrations. Our results highlight that season- and location-specific vehicle emission control measures are needed to alleviate ambient PM2.5 and O3 pollution effectively in this region due to the complex meteorological conditions and atmospheric chemical reactions.