Prevalence and risk factors of aortic stenosis and aortic sclerosis: a 21-year follow-up of middle-aged men.

Introduction. There is limited knowledge about factors associated with the development of aortic stenosis. This study aimed to examine the prevalence of aortic sclerosis or stenosis in 71-years-old men and determine which risk factors at 50 years of age predict the development of aortic sclerosis or aortic stenosis. Methods. A random sample of Swedish men from the general population, born in 1943 (n = 798) were followed for 21 years. Data on clinical characteristics and laboratory values were collected in 1993. An echocardiography was performed in 2014. We used logistic regression to examine the association between baseline data and the outcome. Results. Echocardiography was performed in 535 men, and aortic sclerosis or aortic stenosis was diagnosed in 27 (5.0%). 14 persons developed aortic stenosis (2.6%). Among men with aortic sclerosis or aortic stenosis, 29.6% were obese. In multivariable stepwise regression model, body mass index (odds ratio per unit increase 1.23 (95% CI 1.10-1.38; p = .0003)) and hypercholesterolemia, combined with high sensitive C-reactive protein (odds ratio versus all other 2.66 (1.18-6.00; p = .019)) were significantly associated with increased risk of developing aortic sclerosis or aortic stenosis. Body mass index was the only factor significantly associated with a higher risk of developing aortic stenosis. Conclusion. The prevalence of either aortic sclerosis or aortic stenosis was 5% and of aortic stenosis 2.6%. Obesity and hypercholesterolemia combined with elevated high sensitive C-reactive protein at the age of 50 predicted the development of degenerative aortic sclerosis or stenosis, whilst only obesity was correlated with the occurrence of aortic stenosis.