Prospective confirmation of a prognostic classification for Ph+ chronic myeloid leukaemia. The Italian Cooperative Study Group on Chronic Myeloid Leukaemia.

In 1984, Sokal et al described a prognostic model for Ph+ chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML), based on retrospective analysis of data from six series of patients in the United States and Europe. In the same year, a prospective study of prognosis was started by the Italian Cooperative Study Group on CML. The first analysis of the prospective study is based on 508 Ph+, non-blastic, non-transplanted patients registered between January 1984 and December 1986. Application of the hazard ratio formula described in 1984 to this prospective series has shown that the model predicts accurately the frequency and the time-distribution of blastic transformation and death during the first 2 years after diagnosis. These results confirm the earlier conclusion that prognostic discrimination is possible at the time of diagnosis of CML, and indicate that the model described in 1984 can prove useful in evaluation and management of this disease.