| Literature DB >> 31642331 |
Xinjuan Fan1, Ya Xie2, Haiyang Chen3, Xiaobo Guo4, Yan Ma3, Xiaolin Pang3, Yan Huang1, Fang He3, Shuai Liu3, Yizhen Yu3, Minghuang Hong5, Jian Xiao6, Xiangbo Wan3, Ming Li7, Jian Zheng3.
Abstract
Identifying metastasis remains a challenge for death control and tailored therapy for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Here, we addressed this by designing a nomogram-based Cox proportional regression model through integrating a panel of tumor biomarkers. A total of 147 locally patients with advanced NPC, derived from a randomized phase III clinical trial, were enrolled. We constructed the model by selecting the variables from 31 tumor biomarkers, including 6 pathological signaling pathway molecules and 3 Epstein-Barr virus-related serological variables. Through the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox proportional regression analysis, a nomogram was designed to refine the metastasis risk of each NPC individuals. Using the LASSO Cox regression model, we constructed a 9 biomarkers-based prognostic nomogram: Beclin 1, Aurora-A, Cyclin D1, Ki-67, P27, Bcl-2, MMP-9, 14-3-3σ, and VCA-IgA. The time-dependence receiver operating characteristic analysis at 1, 3, and 5 years showed an appealing prognostic accuracy with the area under the curve of 0.830, 0.827, and 0.817, respectively. In the validation subset, the concordance index of this nomogram reached to 0.64 to identify the individual metastasis pattern. Supporting by this nomogram algorithm, the individual metastasis risk might be refined personally and potentially guiding the treatment decisions and target therapy against the related signaling pathways for patients with locally advanced NPC.Entities:
Keywords: classifier; metastasis; nasopharyngeal carcinoma; nomogram algorithm; tumor biomarker
Mesh:
Substances:
Year: 2019 PMID: 31642331 PMCID: PMC6811765 DOI: 10.1177/1073274819883895
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Cancer Control ISSN: 1073-2748 Impact factor: 3.302
Patient Characteristics and Correlation With Distant Metastasis-Free Survival.
| Characteristics (n = 147) | No (%) | Univariate, HR (95% CI) |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Age, year (>43 vs ≤ 43) | 51.7 vs 48.3 | 1.01 (0.58-1.77) | .97 |
| Gender (male vs female) | 78.9 vs 21.1 | 1.05 (0.54-2.05) | .89 |
| T stage (T1-T2 vs T3-T4) | 16.3 vs 83.7 | 0.64 (0.27-1.52) | .31 |
| N stage (N0-N1 vs N2-N3) | 46.3 vs 53.7 | 0.79 (0.45-1.41) | .43 |
| Overall stage (III vs IVa) | 53.7 vs 46.3 | 0.93 (0.53-1.63) | .80 |
| Treatment (IC/RT vs IC/CRT) | 51.7 vs 48.3 | 1.10 (0.62-1.94) | .75 |
| 14-3-3σ a (>7.0 vs ≤ 7.0) | 33.3 vs 66.7 | 1.53 (0.81-2.89) | .19 |
| AKT1a (> 5.0 vs ≤ 5.0) | 44.2 vs 55.8 | 1.44 (0.79-2.62) | .23 |
| Aurora-Aa (≤6.0 vs > 6.0) | 51.0 vs 49.0 | 0.36 (0.20-0.66) | <.01 |
| Baxa (≤ 4.0 vs > 4.0) | 61.9 vs 38.1 | 0.75 (0.42-1.31) | .30 |
| Bcl-2a (>5.0 vs ≤ 5.0) | 54.4 vs 45.6 | 0.78 (0.44-1.38) | .40 |
| Beclin 1a (≤6.0 vs > 6.0) | 60.5 vs 39.5 | 0.59 (0.33-1.06) | .07 |
| β-Catenina (>6.0 vs ≤ 6.0) | 50.3 vs 49.7 | 0.79 (0.42-1.46) | .45 |
| CDC2a (≤5.0 vs >5.0) | 44.9 vs 55.1 | 0.71 (0.40-1.25) | .24 |
| CENP-Ha (≤5.0 vs > 5.0) | 53.1 vs 46.9 | 0.73 (0.42-1.28) | .28 |
| c-Meta (≤6.0 vs > 6.0) | 50.3 vs 49.7 | 0.89 (0.51-1.56) | .68 |
| COX2a (≤6.0 vs > 6.0) | 57.1 vs 42.9 | 0.83 (0.47-1.47) | .53 |
| Cyclin D1a (≤5.0 vs > 5.0) | 56.5 vs 43.5 | 0.64 (0.36-1.13) | .12 |
| E-Cadherina (>5.0 vs ≤ 5.0) | 56.5 vs 43.5 | 1.10 (0.62-1.92) | .75 |
| ERKa (≤5.0 vs > 5.0) | 53.1 vs 46.9 | 0.81 (0.46-1.43) | .47 |
| EZH2a (≤9.0 vs > 9.0) | 49.7 vs 50.3 | 0.82 (0.47-1.44) | .49 |
| HIF-1αa (≤7.0 vs > 7.0) | 58.5 vs 41.5 | 0.61 (0.34-1.07) | .08 |
| Ki-67a (≤5.0 vs > 5.0) | 49.6 vs 50.4 | 0.78 (0.44-1.36) | .37 |
| LMP1a (>4.0 vs ≤ 4.0) | 44.9 vs 55.1 | 0.94 (0.51-1.73) | .84 |
| MMP-2a (≤6.0 vs > 6.0) | 49.7 vs 50.3 | 0.64 (0.37-1.13) | .13 |
| MMP-9a (>2.0 vs ≤ 2.0) | 46.9 vs 53.1 | 1.60 (0.83-3.06) | .16 |
| N-Cadherina (≤5.0 vs > 5.0) | 53.7 vs 46.3 | 0.69 (0.39-1.21) | .19 |
| nm23a (≤ 5.0 vs >5.0) | 40.8 vs 59.2 | 0.62 (0.34-1.12) | .11 |
| P21a (≤4.0 vs > 4.0) | 58.5 vs 41.5 | 0.77 (0.44-1.35) | .35 |
| P27a (≤6.0 vs > 6.0) | 42.2 vs 57.8 | 0.49 (0.28-0.85) | .01 |
| p-ERKa (>3.0 vs ≤ 3.0) | 43.5 vs 56.5 | 1.12 (0.58-2.16) | .73 |
| Pontina (>3.0 vs ≤ 3.0) | 43.5 vs 56.5 | 0.86 (0.48-1.54) | .62 |
| Snaila (> 4.0 vs ≤ 4.0) | 54.4 vs 45.6 | 1.14 (0.65-2.00) | .65 |
| Stathmina (≤6.0 vs > 6.0) | 42.9 vs 57.1 | 0.69 (0.40-1.22) | .20 |
| Survivina (>3.0 vs ≤ 3.0) | 58.5 vs 41.5 | 1.10 (0.63-1.92) | .75 |
| TIMP-2a (>6.0 vs ≤ 6.0) | 46.9 vs 53.1 | 1.07 (0.61-1.88) | .81 |
| Twista (>3.0 vs ≤ 3.0) | 55.8 vs 44.2 | 0.96 (0.55-1.70) | .90 |
| EA-IgAc (≤1:40 vs > 1:40) | 65.3 vs 34.7 | 0.89 (0.49-1.63) | .71 |
| VCA-IgAc (≤1:160 vs > 1:160) | 39.5 vs 60.5 | 0.86 (0.48-1.56) | .63 |
| AERc (≤55.0% vs > 55.0%) | 38.8 vs 61.2 | 0.63 (0.35-1.13) | .12 |
Abbreviations: AER, antienzyme rate; HR, hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval.
Figure 1.A, Heatmap of the 147 cancer tissues expressed 31 biomarkers. Every row represents an individual biomarker, and each column represents an individual sample. Pseudo colors indicate transcript levels from low to high on a scale from 0 to 1, ranging from a low association strength (bright, red) to high (bright, green). B, The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator coefficient profiles of 34 tumor-related molecular biomarkers and 8 clinicopathological variables associated with DMFS. A vertical line is drawn at the value chosen by 10-fold cross-validation. DMFS indicates distant metastasis-free survival.
Selected Variables According to the Cox Proportional Hazards Regression Model.
| Variables | HR | 95% CI |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Beclin 1 | 1.05 | 1 to 1.11 | .051 |
| Aurora-A | 1.12 | 1.04 to 1.21 | .002 |
| Cyclin D1 | 1.04 | 0.98 to 1.11 | .236 |
| Ki-67 | 1.06 | 0.98 to 1.14 | .134 |
| Bcl-2 | 1.05 | 0.98 to 1.13 | .192 |
| P27 | 1.07 | 0.99 to 1.16 | .082 |
| 14-3-3σ | 0.86 | 0.78 to 0.95 | .002 |
| MMP-9 | 0.88 | 0.73 to 1.06 | .187 |
| VCA-IgA | 1.00 | 1 to 1 | .270 |
Abbreviations: HR, hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval.
Figure 2.A, Nomogram for predicting 1-, 3- and 5-year DMFS in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma. B, Kaplan-Meier survival curves of DMFS: TNM staging system and the Cox proportional hazards model. DMFS indicates distant metastasis-free survival; TNM, tumor–node–metastasis.
Figure 3.A, Receiver operating characteristic curve for the TNM stage. B, Receiver operating characteristic curve for the model and the selected biomarkers. C, The box plot represents the distribution of nomogram-predicted 5-year survival according the TNM staging system. D, Calibration of the nomogram. The x-axis represents the nomogram-predicted survival, and the y-axis represents actual survival and 95% CIs measured by Kaplan-Meier analysis. CI indicates confidence interval; DMFS, distant metastasis-free survival; TNM, tumor–node–metastasis.