| Literature DB >> 31610739 |
Mar Tintore1, Georgina Arrambide1, Susana Otero-Romero2, Pere Carbonell-Mirabent1, Jordi Río1, Carmen Tur3, Manuel Comabella1, Carlos Nos1, María Jesús Arévalo1, Elisenda Anglada1, Rebeca Menendez1, Luciana Midaglia1, Ingrid Galán1, Angela Vidal-Jordana1, Joaquin Castilló1, Patricia Mulero1, Ana Zabalza1, Breogan Rodríguez-Acevedo1, Marta Rodriguez1, Carmen Espejo1, Joao Sequeira1, Raquel Mitjana4, Andrea de Barros4, Deborah Pareto4, Cristina Auger4, Santiago Pérez-Hoyos5, Jaume Sastre-Garriga1, Alex Rovira4, Xavier Montalban6.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To explore the long-term outcomes of patients with clinically isolated syndromes from the Barcelona cohort.Entities:
Keywords: Clinically isolated syndromes; MRI; disease-modifying treatment; multiple sclerosis; prediction; prognosis
Year: 2019 PMID: 31610739 PMCID: PMC7604549 DOI: 10.1177/1352458519877810
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Mult Scler ISSN: 1352-4585 Impact factor: 6.312
Figure 2.Heat maps showing the proportion of patients reaching McDonald MS, CDMS, and EDSS of 3.0 and 6.0 according to the number of baseline T2 lesions.
Figure 3.Multivariable Cox model results for reaching an EDSS of 3.0 in treated patients: initiation of DMT before or after CDMS.
EDSS: Expanded Disability Status Scale; DMT: disease-modifying treatment; CDMS: clinically definite multiple sclerosis; OB: oligoclonal bands; HR: hazard ratio; CI: confidence interval.
Figure 4.Baseline MRI characteristics and cut-offs obtained at baseline for aggressive and non-aggressive MS.
IQR: interquartile range; SD: standard deviation; EDSS: Expanded Disability Status Scale, sens: sensibility, spec: specificity, acc: accuracy, PPV: positive predictive value, NPV: negative predictive value; LR+: positive likelihood ratio.
Positive predictive values for developing an aggressive MS according to the baseline number of T2 and contrast-enhancing lesions.
| T2 baseline lesions | CEL | PPV (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|
| Unknown | Unknown | 4.7% (2.1%, 7.7%) |
| ⩾10 | Unknown | 8.0% (7.2%, 8.9%) |
| ⩾10 | ⩾1 | 12.7% (8.6%, 16.9%) |
| ⩾10 | ⩾2 | 16.3% (10.2%, 22.7%) |
| ⩾10 | ⩾5 | 18.2% (4.8%, 33.3%) |
| ⩾10 | ⩾10 | 36.4% (12.5%, 66.7%) |
| ⩾20 | Unknown | 11.5% (8.6%, 13.9%) |
| ⩾20 | ⩾1 | 15.8% (9.8%, 22.4%) |
| ⩾20 | ⩾2 | 18.9% (10.6%, 28.1%) |
| ⩾20 | ⩾5 | 22.2% (6.3%, 41.7%) |
| ⩾20 | ⩾10 | 40.0% (14.3%, 71.4%) |
MS: multiple sclerosis; CEL: contrast-enhancing lesions; PPV: positive predictive value; 95% CI: 95% confidence interval.
Figure 1.Flowchart: patient’s disposition.
CIS: clinically isolated syndrome.
Baseline characteristics of patients with at least 10 years of follow-up.
| Baseline clinical and demographic characteristics | |
|---|---|
| Females: | 287 (71.6) |
| Mean (SD) age in years | 30.0 (8.1) |
| CIS topography: | |
| ON | 142 (35.4) |
| BS | 112 (27.9) |
| SC | 110 (27.4) |
| Other | 37 (9.2) |
| +OB: | 221/334 (66.2) |
| Baseline number of T2 lesions on brain and SC MRI: | |
| 0 | 80/391 (20.5) |
| 1–3 | 67/391 (17.1) |
| 4–9 | 56/391 (14.3) |
| ⩾10 | 188/391 (48.1) |
| CEL: | 97/239 (40.6) |
| Median (IQR) time of follow-up in years | 14.0 (11.9–16.7) |
SD: standard deviation; CIS: clinically isolated syndrome; ON: optic neuritis; BS: brainstem; SC: spinal cord; OB: oligoclonal bands; MRI: magnetic resonance imaging, CEL: contrast-enhancing lesions; IQR: interquartile range.
Baseline characteristics of patients according to early versus delayed treatment.
| Baseline characteristics | DMT after CDMS ( | DMT before CDMS ( | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Females: | 112 (71.8) | 39 (70.9) | 1 |
| Mean (SD) age in years | 28.3 (7.3) | 29.1 (7.7) | 0.553 |
| CIS topography: | |||
| ON | 47 (30.1) | 14 (25.5) | 0.320 |
| BS | 50 (32.1) | 16 (29.1) | |
| SC | 47 (30.1) | 16 (29.1) | |
| Other | 12 (7.7) | 9 (16.4) | |
| +OB: | 115/137 (83.9) | 32/38 (84.2) | 1.0 |
| Baseline T2 brain lesions: | |||
| 0 | 2/154 (1.3) | 0/52 (0) | 0.053 |
| 1–3 | 22/154 (14.3) | 2/52 (3.9) | |
| 4–9 | 29/154 (18.8) | 6/52 (11.5) | |
| ⩾10 | 101/154 (65.6) | 44/52 (84.6) | |
| CEL: | 50/110 (45.4) | 31/47 (66.0) | 0.029 |
| Median(IQR) time to start treatment in months | 36 (16–72) | 4 (1–6) | <0.001 |
| Median (IQR) time of follow-up in years | 14.6 (12.8–16.8) | 12.0 (11–12.9) | <0.001 |
| Outcomes | DMT after CDMS ( | DMT before CDMS ( | |
| CDMS | 156 (100.0) | 40 (72.7) | < 0.001 |
| 2005 McDonald MS | 156 (100.0) | 43 (78.2) | < 0.001 |
| 2017 McDonald MS | 66/66 (100.0) | 43/46 (93.5) | 0.067 |
| Confirmed EDSS of 3.0 | 74 (47.4) | 11 (20.0) | < 0.001 |
| Confirmed EDSS of 6.0 | 11 (7.1) | 4 (7.3) | 1.0 |
DMT: disease-modifying treatment; CDMS: clinically definite multiple sclerosis; SD: standard deviation; CIS: clinically isolated syndrome; ON: optic nerve; BS: brainstem; SC: spinal cord; OB: oligoclonal bands; CEL: contrast-enhancing lesions; MS: multiple sclerosis; EDSS: Expanded Disability Status Scale. IQR: Interquartile range.
All tests are Fisher’s exact and chi-square tests, except for age (Student’s t-test) and follow-up time (Mann–Whitney test).