Regional brain atrophy predicts time to conversion to Alzheimer's disease, dependent on baseline volume.

A key question for the design of clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease (AD) is whether the timing of conversion from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to AD can be predicted. This is also an important question for the clinical management of MCI. This study aims to address this question by exploring the contribution of baseline brain volume and annual volume change, using Cox regression, in predicting the time to conversion. Individuals with MCI, who converted to AD (n = 198), reverted to normal (n = 38), or remained stable (n = 96) for at least five years, were included in this study. The results revealed that the volumes of all the brain areas considered were predictive of the time to conversion from MCI to AD. Annual change in volume was also predictive of the time to conversion but only when initial volumes were above a certain threshold. This is important because it suggests that reduction in atrophy rate, which is the outcome of some clinical trials, is not inevitably associated with delay in conversion from MCI to AD.