Ross Wilson1, J Haxby Abbott2. 1. Research Fellow, Centre for Musculoskeletal Outcomes Research, University of Otago, Dunedin. 2. Research Professor, Centre for Musculoskeletal Outcomes Research, University of Otago, Dunedin.
Abstract
AIM: To estimate the healthcare costs and demand for total knee replacement (TKR) associated with knee osteoarthritis in New Zealand over the period 2013-2038 and the contribution of increasing obesity rates to these costs. METHOD: We used the NZ-MOA computer simulation model of knee osteoarthritis in the New Zealand population. Osteoarthritis-related healthcare costs and TKR incidence were modelled for a 25-year horizon, for a starting cohort drawn from the 2013 New Zealand population. Population obesity projections were used to estimate the life-course of cohort obesity. Per-person projected outcomes were multiplied by national demographic population projections to obtain total population projections. RESULTS: Healthcare costs of knee osteoarthritis were projected to increase from NZ$199 million in 2013 to $370 million in 2038. Annual TKR incidence was projected to increase from 5,070 to 9,040 over the same period. Projected increases in population obesity rates (above the obesity prevalence seen in 2013) accounted for 25% and 47% of the projected increase in per-capita healthcare costs and TKR provision rates, respectively. CONCLUSION: The healthcare burden of knee OA will continue to increase for the foreseeable future. Public health measures to reduce further increases in population obesity rates would contribute to slowing this rising burden.
AIM: To estimate the healthcare costs and demand for total knee replacement (TKR) associated with knee osteoarthritis in New Zealand over the period 2013-2038 and the contribution of increasing obesity rates to these costs. METHOD: We used the NZ-MOA computer simulation model of knee osteoarthritis in the New Zealand population. Osteoarthritis-related healthcare costs and TKR incidence were modelled for a 25-year horizon, for a starting cohort drawn from the 2013 New Zealand population. Population obesity projections were used to estimate the life-course of cohort obesity. Per-person projected outcomes were multiplied by national demographic population projections to obtain total population projections. RESULTS: Healthcare costs of knee osteoarthritis were projected to increase from NZ$199 million in 2013 to $370 million in 2038. Annual TKR incidence was projected to increase from 5,070 to 9,040 over the same period. Projected increases in population obesity rates (above the obesity prevalence seen in 2013) accounted for 25% and 47% of the projected increase in per-capita healthcare costs and TKR provision rates, respectively. CONCLUSION: The healthcare burden of knee OA will continue to increase for the foreseeable future. Public health measures to reduce further increases in population obesity rates would contribute to slowing this rising burden.
Authors: Xiaoqian Liu; Sarah Robbins; Xia Wang; Sonika Virk; Karen Schuck; Leticia A Deveza; Win Min Oo; Kirsty Carmichael; Benny Antony; Felix Eckstein; Wolfgang Wirth; Christopher Little; James Linklater; Anthony Harris; David Humphries; R O'Connell; Gillian Heller; Thomas Buttel; Stefan Lohmander; Changhai Ding; David J Hunter Journal: BMJ Open Date: 2021-11-29 Impact factor: 2.692