Literature DB >> 31571006

Are random events expected to be small?

Karl Halvor Teigen1, Alf Børre Kanten2.   

Abstract

People's intuitions about mathematical and statistical concepts often include features that are not a part of the formal definitions. We argue that randomness and related concepts (events happening "accidentally", "coincidentally" or "by chance") are typically assumed to occur in a context of small rather than large events. Five experiments were designed to test the hypothesis of an association between perceived randomness and size. In Experiment 1 and 2, statements describing small outcomes as due to chance were judged to be more natural and to make better sense than corresponding statements about large outcomes (or about small outcomes not due to chance). Experiment 3 showed that people imagine that stories about randomness in daily life should preferably start with small events, even when they eventually turn out to be consequential (e.g., stories about an apparently random meeting ending with marriage). Experiment 4 demonstrated that small changes in a graph of a random walk were seen as random, whereas large changes were perceived as potentially nonrandom. Finally, Experiment 5 showed that small animals are believed to display more random behavior than larger ones. This applied also to fictional creatures with nonsense names, where size was implicitly suggested by the names' phonetic qualities. Analogical instances can be found in the history of science, all the way back to Lucretius' doctrine of the tiny "swerves" of atoms. The pervasive association between smallness and randomness might be partly due to real-world observations and partly to cognitive and motivational constraints.

Entities:  

Mesh:

Year:  2019        PMID: 31571006     DOI: 10.1007/s00426-019-01252-9

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Psychol Res        ISSN: 0340-0727


  10 in total

1.  BMJ bans "accidents".

Authors:  R M Davis; B Pless
Journal:  BMJ       Date:  2001-06-02

Review 2.  The production and perception of randomness.

Authors:  Raymond S Nickerson
Journal:  Psychol Rev       Date:  2002-04       Impact factor: 8.934

Review 3.  Grounded cognition.

Authors:  Lawrence W Barsalou
Journal:  Annu Rev Psychol       Date:  2008       Impact factor: 24.137

4.  On the reality of cognitive illusions.

Authors:  D Kahneman; A Tversky
Journal:  Psychol Rev       Date:  1996-07       Impact factor: 8.934

5.  The need to discontinue the use of the term "accident" when referring to unintentional injury events.

Authors:  J D Langley
Journal:  Accid Anal Prev       Date:  1988-02

6.  Behavioral variability through stochastic choice and its gating by anterior cingulate cortex.

Authors:  Dougal G R Tervo; Mikhail Proskurin; Maxim Manakov; Mayank Kabra; Alison Vollmer; Kristin Branson; Alla Y Karpova
Journal:  Cell       Date:  2014-09-25       Impact factor: 41.582

7.  From mere coincidences to meaningful discoveries.

Authors:  Thomas L Griffiths; Joshua B Tenenbaum
Journal:  Cognition       Date:  2006-05-04

8.  It's no accident: Our bias for intentional explanations.

Authors:  Evelyn Rosset
Journal:  Cognition       Date:  2008-08-09

9.  Weight as an embodiment of importance.

Authors:  Nils B Jostmann; Daniël Lakens; Thomas W Schubert
Journal:  Psychol Sci       Date:  2009-08-14

10.  The Psychology of Conspiracy Theories.

Authors:  Karen M Douglas; Robbie M Sutton; Aleksandra Cichocka
Journal:  Curr Dir Psychol Sci       Date:  2017-12-07
  10 in total
  1 in total

1.  Are random events perceived as rare? On the relationship between perceived randomness and outcome probability.

Authors:  Karl Halvor Teigen; Gideon Keren
Journal:  Mem Cognit       Date:  2020-02
  1 in total

北京卡尤迪生物科技股份有限公司 © 2022-2023.