Rachel Arocho1. 1. Postdoctoral Scholar, Population Science, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 123 West Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC 27516, rachel.arocho@gmail.com.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: This study describes the association between explicit expectations to divorce and subsequent first union formation over the transition to adulthood (ages 18-28). BACKGROUND: Expectations for marriage in young adulthood predict union formation. Even before marrying, young adults may express a perceived risk of eventual divorce, and expectations of divorce may also have implications for union formation over the transition to adulthood. METHOD: Data from the 2005-2015 years of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics Transition to Adulthood Supplement (n = 2052) were used to estimate the association between expectations to divorce and entry into first premarital cohabitation and first marriage using discrete-time logistic and multinomial logistic survival models. RESULTS: As hypothesized, greater expectations for divorce predicted slower entrance into first marriage, even controlling for expectations for marriage and various sociodemographic characteristics, and predicted a greater likelihood of both remaining single and being first observed cohabiting instead of marrying in young adulthood for both men and women. CONCLUSION: Despite desiring to marry, young adults may delay marriage if they are concerned about their risk of future divorce.
OBJECTIVE: This study describes the association between explicit expectations to divorce and subsequent first union formation over the transition to adulthood (ages 18-28). BACKGROUND: Expectations for marriage in young adulthood predict union formation. Even before marrying, young adults may express a perceived risk of eventual divorce, and expectations of divorce may also have implications for union formation over the transition to adulthood. METHOD: Data from the 2005-2015 years of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics Transition to Adulthood Supplement (n = 2052) were used to estimate the association between expectations to divorce and entry into first premarital cohabitation and first marriage using discrete-time logistic and multinomial logistic survival models. RESULTS: As hypothesized, greater expectations for divorce predicted slower entrance into first marriage, even controlling for expectations for marriage and various sociodemographic characteristics, and predicted a greater likelihood of both remaining single and being first observed cohabiting instead of marrying in young adulthood for both men and women. CONCLUSION: Despite desiring to marry, young adults may delay marriage if they are concerned about their risk of future divorce.
Entities:
Keywords:
cohabitation; divorce; event history analysis; marriage; union formation; youth/emergent adulthood