Pouya Saeedi1, Inga Petersohn2, Paraskevi Salpea2, Belma Malanda2, Suvi Karuranga2, Nigel Unwin3, Stephen Colagiuri4, Leonor Guariguata5, Ayesha A Motala6, Katherine Ogurtsova7, Jonathan E Shaw8, Dominic Bright9, Rhys Williams9. 1. International Diabetes Federation, Brussels, Belgium. Electronic address: pouya.saeedi@idf.org. 2. International Diabetes Federation, Brussels, Belgium. 3. MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom. 4. The University of Sydney, School of Medicine, Australia. 5. The University of the West Indies, Cave Hill Campus, Barbados. 6. Department of Diabetes and Endocrinology, Nelson R. Mandela School of Medicine, University of Kwa-Zulu Natal, Durban, South Africa. 7. Institute for Health Services Research and Health Economics, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at the Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany. 8. Clinical and Population Health, Baker Institute, Australia. 9. Diabetes Research Unit Cymru, Swansea University, Swansea, United Kingdom.
Abstract
AIMS: To provide global estimates of diabetes prevalence for 2019 and projections for 2030 and 2045. METHODS: A total of 255 high-quality data sources, published between 1990 and 2018 and representing 138 countries were identified. For countries without high quality in-country data, estimates were extrapolated from similar countries matched by economy, ethnicity, geography and language. Logistic regression was used to generate smoothed age-specific diabetes prevalence estimates (including previously undiagnosed diabetes) in adults aged 20-79 years. RESULTS: The global diabetes prevalence in 2019 is estimated to be 9.3% (463 million people), rising to 10.2% (578 million) by 2030 and 10.9% (700 million) by 2045. The prevalence is higher in urban (10.8%) than rural (7.2%) areas, and in high-income (10.4%) than low-income countries (4.0%). One in two (50.1%) people living with diabetes do not know that they have diabetes. The global prevalence of impaired glucose tolerance is estimated to be 7.5% (374 million) in 2019 and projected to reach 8.0% (454 million) by 2030 and 8.6% (548 million) by 2045. CONCLUSIONS: Just under half a billion people are living with diabetes worldwide and the number is projected to increase by 25% in 2030 and 51% in 2045.
AIMS: To provide global estimates of diabetes prevalence for 2019 and projections for 2030 and 2045. METHODS: A total of 255 high-quality data sources, published between 1990 and 2018 and representing 138 countries were identified. For countries without high quality in-country data, estimates were extrapolated from similar countries matched by economy, ethnicity, geography and language. Logistic regression was used to generate smoothed age-specific diabetes prevalence estimates (including previously undiagnosed diabetes) in adults aged 20-79 years. RESULTS: The global diabetes prevalence in 2019 is estimated to be 9.3% (463 million people), rising to 10.2% (578 million) by 2030 and 10.9% (700 million) by 2045. The prevalence is higher in urban (10.8%) than rural (7.2%) areas, and in high-income (10.4%) than low-income countries (4.0%). One in two (50.1%) people living with diabetes do not know that they have diabetes. The global prevalence of impaired glucose tolerance is estimated to be 7.5% (374 million) in 2019 and projected to reach 8.0% (454 million) by 2030 and 8.6% (548 million) by 2045. CONCLUSIONS: Just under half a billion people are living with diabetes worldwide and the number is projected to increase by 25% in 2030 and 51% in 2045.
Authors: Marija Sajic; Amy E Rumora; Anish A Kanhai; Giacomo Dentoni; Sharlini Varatharajah; Caroline Casey; Ryan D R Brown; Fabian Peters; Lucy M Hinder; Masha G Savelieff; Eva L Feldman; Kenneth J Smith Journal: J Neurosci Date: 2021-03-30 Impact factor: 6.167
Authors: Mohamed Bouhrim; Hayat Ouassou; Salima Boutahiri; Nour Elhouda Daoudi; Hamza Mechchate; Bernard Gressier; Bruno Eto; Hamada Imtara; Amal A Alotaibi; Mohammed Al-Zharani; Abderrahim Ziyyat; Hassane Mekhfi; Abdelkhaleq Legssyer; Mohammed Aziz; Mohamed Bnouham Journal: Molecules Date: 2021-03-17 Impact factor: 4.411