Garick D Hill1, Jena Tanem2, Nancy Ghanayem3, Nancy Rudd2, Nicholas J Ollberding4, Julie Lavoie2, Michele Frommelt2. 1. Department of Pediatric Cardiology, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, Ohio; Department of Pediatrics, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, Ohio. Electronic address: garick.hill@cchmc.org. 2. Department of Pediatric Cardiology, Children's Hospital of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wisconsin. 3. Department of Pediatric Critical Care, Texas Children's Hospital, Houston, Texas. 4. Department of Pediatrics, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, Ohio; Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, Ohio.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: We report our intermediate-term results after Norwood procedure, including use of an interstage inpatient management strategy for high-risk patients, and seek to create a predictive model for probability of discharge. METHODS: A single-site retrospective review was conducted for all patients undergoing Norwood procedure from 2006 to 2016 (N = 177). We compared those discharged home with those who either remained hospitalized until Glenn procedure or died before Norwood procedure discharge. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop a predictive model for discharge. RESULTS: During the study period, 120 (68%) patients were discharged home, 45 (25%) remained hospitalized, and 12 (7%) died before Glenn procedure (median age: 71 days). Interstage survival for those discharged after Norwood procedure was 100%. Longitudinal survival for the cohort was 86%, 81%, and 77% at 1, 5, and 10 years, resepectively. Ten-year survival was significantly greater for the discharged group compared with the interstage inpatients (86% vs 56%, P < .001). A reduced predictive model of discharge included lower gestational age (odds ratio [OR]: 0.95), lower median income for ZIP code (OR: 0.4), lower birth-weight-for-age z-score (OR: 0.56), longer cardiopulmonary bypass time (OR: 0.45), and Blalock-Taussig shunt (OR: 0.32). CONCLUSIONS: Survival up to 10 years after Norwood procedure is good using a strategy of inpatient care for a subset of high-risk patients to mitigate home interstage mortality. A probabilistic model used after Norwood procedure was able to predict interstage discharge with good accuracy, but will require external validation to ensure generalizability. Further work is also needed to determine optimal palliative pathways for the high-risk patients because of the notable attrition beyond successful bidirectional Glenn procedure.
BACKGROUND: We report our intermediate-term results after Norwood procedure, including use of an interstage inpatient management strategy for high-risk patients, and seek to create a predictive model for probability of discharge. METHODS: A single-site retrospective review was conducted for all patients undergoing Norwood procedure from 2006 to 2016 (N = 177). We compared those discharged home with those who either remained hospitalized until Glenn procedure or died before Norwood procedure discharge. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop a predictive model for discharge. RESULTS: During the study period, 120 (68%) patients were discharged home, 45 (25%) remained hospitalized, and 12 (7%) died before Glenn procedure (median age: 71 days). Interstage survival for those discharged after Norwood procedure was 100%. Longitudinal survival for the cohort was 86%, 81%, and 77% at 1, 5, and 10 years, resepectively. Ten-year survival was significantly greater for the discharged group compared with the interstage inpatients (86% vs 56%, P < .001). A reduced predictive model of discharge included lower gestational age (odds ratio [OR]: 0.95), lower median income for ZIP code (OR: 0.4), lower birth-weight-for-age z-score (OR: 0.56), longer cardiopulmonary bypass time (OR: 0.45), and Blalock-Taussig shunt (OR: 0.32). CONCLUSIONS: Survival up to 10 years after Norwood procedure is good using a strategy of inpatient care for a subset of high-risk patients to mitigate home interstage mortality. A probabilistic model used after Norwood procedure was able to predict interstage discharge with good accuracy, but will require external validation to ensure generalizability. Further work is also needed to determine optimal palliative pathways for the high-risk patients because of the notable attrition beyond successful bidirectional Glenn procedure.
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