Shu-Yein Ho1,2, Chia-Yang Hsu2,3, Po-Hong Liu2,4, Cheng-Yuan Hsia2,5, Hao-Jan Lei2,5, Yi-Hsiang Huang1,2,6, Chih-Chieh Ko1,2, Chien-Wei Su1,2, Rheun-Chuan Lee2,7, Ming-Chih Hou1,2, Teh-Ia Huo2,8,9. 1. Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan. 2. Faculty of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University School of Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan. 3. Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA. 4. Department of Internal Medicine, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX, USA. 5. Department of Surgery, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan. 6. Institute of Clinical Medicine, National Yang-Ming University School of Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan. 7. Department of Radiology, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan. 8. Department of Medical Research, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan. 9. Institute of Pharmacology, National Yang-Ming University School of Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan.
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS: The prognostic accuracy of individual hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patient in each Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage is unclear. We aimed to develop and validate an albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade-based nomogram of BCLC to estimate survival for individual HCC patient. METHODS: Between 2002 and 2016, 3690 patients with newly diagnosed HCC were prospectively enrolled and retrospectively analysed. Patients were randomly split into derivation and validation cohort by 1:1 ratio. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to generate the nomogram from tumour burden, ALBI grade and performance status (PS). The concordance index and calibration plot were determined to evaluate the performance of this nomogram. RESULTS: Beta coefficients from the Cox model were used to assign nomogram points to different degrees of tumour burden, ALBI grade and PS. The scores of the nomogram ranged from 0 to 24, and were used to predict 3- and 5-year patient survival. The concordance index of this nomogram was 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.71-0.81) in the derivation cohort and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.71-0.81) in the validation cohort. The calibration plots to predict both 3- and 5-year survival rate well matched with the 45-degree ideal line for both cohorts, except for ALBI-based BCLC stage 0 in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed ALBI-based nomogram of BCLC system is a simple and feasible strategy in the precision medicine era. Our data indicate it is a straightforward and user-friendly prognostic tool to estimate the survival of individual HCC patient except for very early stage patients.
BACKGROUND & AIMS: The prognostic accuracy of individual hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patient in each Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage is unclear. We aimed to develop and validate an albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade-based nomogram of BCLC to estimate survival for individual HCC patient. METHODS: Between 2002 and 2016, 3690 patients with newly diagnosed HCC were prospectively enrolled and retrospectively analysed. Patients were randomly split into derivation and validation cohort by 1:1 ratio. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to generate the nomogram from tumour burden, ALBI grade and performance status (PS). The concordance index and calibration plot were determined to evaluate the performance of this nomogram. RESULTS: Beta coefficients from the Cox model were used to assign nomogram points to different degrees of tumour burden, ALBI grade and PS. The scores of the nomogram ranged from 0 to 24, and were used to predict 3- and 5-year patient survival. The concordance index of this nomogram was 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.71-0.81) in the derivation cohort and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.71-0.81) in the validation cohort. The calibration plots to predict both 3- and 5-year survival rate well matched with the 45-degree ideal line for both cohorts, except for ALBI-based BCLC stage 0 in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed ALBI-based nomogram of BCLC system is a simple and feasible strategy in the precision medicine era. Our data indicate it is a straightforward and user-friendly prognostic tool to estimate the survival of individual HCC patient except for very early stage patients.