Toshio Kinoshita1, Kenichi Hashimoto2, Koichiro Yoshioka3, Yosuke Miwa4, Kenji Yodogawa5, Eiichi Watanabe6, Kohki Nakamura7, Mikiko Nakagawa8, Kentaro Nakamura9, Tetsu Watanabe10, Satoru Yusu11, Motomi Tachibana12, Shiro Nakahara13, Koichi Mizumaki14, Takanori Ikeda15. 1. Toho University, Tokyo, Japan. Electronic address: kino-00039@med.toho-u.ac.jp. 2. National Defense Medical College, Saitama, Japan. 3. Tokai University, Kanagawa, Japan. 4. Kyorin University, Tokyo, Japan. 5. Nippon Medical School, Tokyo, Japan. 6. Fujita Health University, Aichi, Japan. 7. Gunma Cardiovascular Center, Gunma, Japan. 8. Oita University, Oita, Japan. 9. Shin-Yamanote Hospital, Tokyo, Japan. 10. Yamagata University, Yamagata, Japan. 11. Inagi Municipal Hospital, Tokyo, Japan. 12. Okayama University, Okayama, Japan. 13. Dokkyo Medical University, Saitama, Japan. 14. University of Toyama, Toyama, Japan. 15. Toho University, Tokyo, Japan.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Recent guidelines have stated that left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is the gold standard marker for identifying patients at risk for cardiac mortality. However, little information is present regarding electrocardiographic (ECG) markers. This study aimed to assess ECG markers for predicting mortality or serious arrhythmia in patients with structural heart disease (SHD). METHODS: In total, 1829 patients were enrolled into the Japanese Multicenter Observational Prospective Study (JANIES study). In this study, we analyzed data of 719 patients (569 men, age 64 ± 13 years) with SHD including mainly ischemic heart disease (65.8%). As ECG markers based on 24-hour Holter recordings, nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT), ventricular late potentials, and heart rate turbulence (HRT) were assessed. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality, and the secondary endpoint was fatal arrhythmic events. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 21 ± 11 months, all-cause mortality was eventually observed in 39 patients (5.4%). Among those patients, 32 patients (82%) suffered from cardiac causes such as heart failure and arrhythmia. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that after adjustment for age and LVEF, documented NSVT [hazard ratio = 2.46, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16-5.18, p = 0.02] and abnormal HRT (hazard ratio = 2.40, 95% CI: 1.16-4.93, p = 0.02) were significantly associated with the primary endpoint. These two ECG markers also had significant predictive values with the secondary endpoint. The combined assessment of two ECG markers improved predictive accuracy. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated that combined assessment of documented NSVT and abnormal HRT based on 24-hour Holter ECG recordings are recommended for predicting future serious events in this population.
BACKGROUND: Recent guidelines have stated that left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is the gold standard marker for identifying patients at risk for cardiac mortality. However, little information is present regarding electrocardiographic (ECG) markers. This study aimed to assess ECG markers for predicting mortality or serious arrhythmia in patients with structural heart disease (SHD). METHODS: In total, 1829 patients were enrolled into the Japanese Multicenter Observational Prospective Study (JANIES study). In this study, we analyzed data of 719 patients (569 men, age 64 ± 13 years) with SHD including mainly ischemic heart disease (65.8%). As ECG markers based on 24-hour Holter recordings, nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT), ventricular late potentials, and heart rate turbulence (HRT) were assessed. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality, and the secondary endpoint was fatal arrhythmic events. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 21 ± 11 months, all-cause mortality was eventually observed in 39 patients (5.4%). Among those patients, 32 patients (82%) suffered from cardiac causes such as heart failure and arrhythmia. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that after adjustment for age and LVEF, documented NSVT [hazard ratio = 2.46, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16-5.18, p = 0.02] and abnormal HRT (hazard ratio = 2.40, 95% CI: 1.16-4.93, p = 0.02) were significantly associated with the primary endpoint. These two ECG markers also had significant predictive values with the secondary endpoint. The combined assessment of two ECG markers improved predictive accuracy. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated that combined assessment of documented NSVT and abnormal HRT based on 24-hour Holter ECG recordings are recommended for predicting future serious events in this population.
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