| Literature DB >> 31467441 |
Emilia Vynnycky1,2,3, Shinsuke Miyano4, Katsuhiro Komase5, Yoshio Mori5, Makoto Takeda5, Tomomi Kitamura4, Anonh Xeuatvongsa6, Masahiko Hachiya4.
Abstract
Measles and rubella are important causes of morbidity and mortality globally. Despite high coverage reported for measles vaccination, outbreaks continue to occur in some countries. The reasons for these outbreaks are poorly understood. We apply Bayesian methods to multi-valent seroprevalence data for measles and rubella, collected 2 years and 3 months after a mass measles-rubella vaccination campaign in Lao PDR to estimate the immunogenicity and vaccination coverage. When the vaccination coverage was constrained to exceed 95% or 90%, consistent with officially-reported values, the immunogenicity of the measles vaccine component was unexpectedly low (75% (95% CR: 63-82%) and 79% (CR: 70-87%) respectively. The estimated immunogenicity increased after relaxing constraints on the vaccination coverage, with best-fitting values of 83% (95% CR: 73-91%) and 97% (95% CR: 90-100%) for the measles and rubella components respectively, with an estimated coverage of 83% (95% CR: 80-88%). The findings suggest that, if the vaccine coverage was as high as that reported, continuing measles outbreaks in Lao PDR, and potentially elsewhere, may be attributable to suboptimal immunogenicity attained in mass campaigns. Vaccine management in countries with high reported levels of coverage and ongoing measles outbreaks needs to be reviewed if measles elimination targets are to be achieved.Entities:
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Year: 2019 PMID: 31467441 PMCID: PMC6715652 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-49018-y
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Sci Rep ISSN: 2045-2322 Impact factor: 4.379
Summary of the estimated percentage of seronegative people who became positive for measles or rubella antibodies after vaccination and the vaccine coverage, based on 1000 million initial samples and 50,000 resamples.
| Age group considered in the estimation | Constraint on the vaccine coverage | Estimated % of seronegative people who become positive after vaccination for antibodies to: | Estimated average vaccination coverage (%) | Deviance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measles ( | Rubella ( | ||||
| 5–14 year olds | >95 (basecase) | 74.6 (62.7,81.9) | 89.4 (79.7,95.6) | 95.3 (95,96.5) | 61 |
| >90 | 78.9 (69.5,86.5) | 94.8 (87.8,98.4) | 90.5 (90,92.4) | 46 | |
| >80 | 82.9 (72.9,91.5) | 96.7 (89.7,99.7) | 82.7 (80.1,87.8) | 37 | |
| >50 | 85.1 (73.1,97.7) | 96.6 (89.8,99.7) | 79.3 (67.4,86.6) | 38 | |
| >0 | 86.5 (74.4,98.2) | 96.4 (89.7,99.9) | 79 (66.9,86.8) | 38 | |
| 15–21 year olds | >95 (basecase) | 88.1 (77.2,93.7) | 75.5 (56.9,85.2) | 96.4 (95.1,99.3) | 26 |
| >90 | 89.6 (78.4,96) | 75.9 (57.1,86.4) | 93.7 (90.2,98.5) | 26 | |
| >80 | 90.4 (77.8,98.3) | 75.9 (56,87.9) | 91.8 (82.1,98.1) | 26 | |
| >50 | 90.4 (77.3,98.5) | 76.1 (56.5,89.1) | 91.7 (78,98.1) | 26 | |
| >0 | 90.4 (77.3,98.6) | 75.9 (56.2,88.8) | 91.7 (78,98) | 26 | |
| All age groups | >95 (basecase) | 75.6 (72.3,81.3) | 88.4 (77.3,88.4) | 95.6 (95.1,96.1) | 115 |
| >90 | 83.1 (71.6,87) | 87.5 (83.3,93.1) | 90.4 (90.1,92.8) | 103 | |
| >80 | 82.1 (79,90.8) | 91.4 (88.5,95) | 85.5 (81.1,88.5) | 87 | |
| >50 | 86.1 (86.1,89.6) | 94.2 (94.2,94.4) | 81.6 (76.9,81.6) | 85 | |
| >0 | 86 (76.2,90.9) | 91.6 (83.5,99.6) | 81.7 (74.9,89.7) | 96 | |
The values in parentheses show the 95% credible range. The number of degrees of freedom when considering data for 5–14, 15–21 and 5–21 year olds was 7, 4 and 14 respectively. The deviance reflects the minimum deviance seen in the 50,000 resamples.
Figure 1Comparison between base-case estimates (>95% vaccination coverage) and best-fitting estimates (>80% vaccination coverage). (A) Age-specific proportion of unvaccinated people who had acquired detectable antibodies to measles (c) or rubella (c) through natural infection (measles and rubella) or vaccination (measles only). The bars show the 95% credible range. (B) Comparison between the observed data (crosses, with bars for the 95% CI) and the % estimated to be positive or negative for measles and/or rubella antibodies. The solid squares and shaded areas respectively show the median and 95% credible range of the calculated estimates.
Summary of the estimated percentage of seronegative people who became positive for measles or rubella antibodies after vaccination and the estimated vaccination coverage, obtained by fitting to the observed data using maximum likelihood.
| Age group considered in the estimation | Constraint on the vaccine coverage | Estimated % of seronegative people who become positive after vaccination for antibodies to: | Estimated average vaccination coverage (%) | Deviance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measles ( | Rubella ( | ||||
| 5–14 years | >95% (basecase) | 83.6 (76,87.9) | 95.8 (92.1,98.4) | 95 (95,95) | 56 |
| >90% | 83.2 (71.5,89.8) | 96.8 (91.4,100) | 90 (90,90.7) | 50 | |
| >80% | 84.3 (72.9,94.2) | 99.9 (92,100) | 80.6 (80,90.2) | 49 | |
| >50% | 84.7 (74.1,99.9) | 99.1 (92.3,100) | 81.3 (63.8,89.8) | 49 | |
| >0% | 84.7 (73.7,99.9) | 99.1 (92.5,100) | 81.3 (64,89.4) | 49 | |
| 15–21 years | >95% (basecase) | 86.6 (73.1,94.9) | 87.4 (66.4,92.1) | 95 (95,99.4) | 33 |
| >90% | 88.6 (68.1,96.9) | 81.2 (65.2,96.2) | 90 (90,99.4) | 33 | |
| >80% | 86.9 (61,98.4) | 87.3 (61.5,100) | 95.2 (80,99.2) | 33 | |
| >50% | 84.8 (65.5,99.9) | 87.8 (57.9,100) | 94 (64.7,99.3) | 33 | |
| >0% | 76.7 (64,99.9) | 96.2 (60.5,100) | 75.6 (65.3,99.3) | 33 | |
| All age groups | >95% (basecase) | 76.8 (67.2,85.2) | 92.7 (89.9,95.2) | 95 (95,95) | 109 |
| >90% | 75.1 (68.1,81.6) | 97.1 (94.3,99.6) | 90 (90,90) | 94 | |
| >80% | 75.2 (67.8,83.7) | 100 (97.5,100) | 84.7 (80,88.2) | 90 | |
| >50% | 75.2 (68.3,99.9) | 100 (97.3,100) | 84.7 (63,88.2) | 90 | |
| >0% | 75.2 (68.3,99.8) | 100 (97.4,100) | 84.7 (63.9,88.2) | 90 | |
The values in parentheses show the 95% confidence intervals, based on 1000 bootstraps. The number of degrees of freedom when considering data for 5–14, 15–21 and 5–21 year olds was 23, 14, and 14 respectively.
Estimated percentage of seronegative people who became positive for measles or rubella antibodies after vaccination and the vaccine coverage obtained by applying the Bayesian Melding approach (1000 M initial samples and 50,000 resamples) to simulated data, in which the vaccine coverage was assumed to be 77%, 85% or 97%. The values in parentheses show the 95% credible range.
| Assumed vaccine coverage in the simulated data | Constraint on the estimated vaccine coverage | Age group considered in the estimation | Estimated % of seronegative people who become positive after vaccination for antibodies to: | Estimated vaccination coverage (%) | Deviance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measles ( | Rubella ( | |||||
| 77% (low) | >50% | 5–14 years | 83.4 (70.4,94) | 82.9 (68.4,93.1) | 88.1 (74.8,95.6) | 6 |
| 15–21 years | 81.4 (63.6,89.7) | 88.8 (75.7,95.5) | 97 (87.5,99.8) | 3 | ||
| All age groups | 84.1 (73.3,88.6) | 83.6 (76.9,89.6) | 93.2 (86.4,96.9) | 26 | ||
| 85% (medium) | >80% | 5–14 years | 84.9 (72.9,92.9) | 86.7 (75.3,94.5) | 93.3 (84,98.5) | 7 |
| 15–21 years | 78.5 (61,88.4) | 92.5 (81.6,98.9) | 93.8 (84,98.8) | 3 | ||
| All age groups | 84.5 (74.4,89) | 89.3 (83.9,93.5) | 94 (89.5,97.5) | 21 | ||
| 97% (high) | >95% | 5–14 years | 84.1 (72.7,90.2) | 90.9 (83,95.3) | 99.2 (96.1,100) | 6 |
| 15–21 years | 92.2 (82.2,96.6) | 93.8 (85.5,97.5) | 99.2 (95.9,100) | 4 | ||
| All age groups | 87.5 (81.5,91.5) | 92.5 (87.8,95.4) | 99.6 (97.8,100) | 19 | ||
The average values for the immunogenicity of the measles and rubella components of the vaccine (e and e), used in simulating the data were 75% and 90% respectively. The number of degrees of freedom when fitting using data for 5–14, 15–21 and 5–21 year olds was 7, 4 and 14 respectively. The deviance reflects the minimum deviance seen in the 50,000 resamples.
Figure 2(A) Measles and (B) Rubella antibody titres for the study population. The red lines show the threshold for defining seropositivity (120 IU/ml and 10 IU/ml for measles and rubella respectively). (C) Age-specific percentage seropositive for measles and rubella. The bars show 95% confidence limits on the observed data.