Nils Skajaa1, Erzsébet Horváth-Puhó2, Kasper Adelborg3, Hans Erik Bøtker4, Kenneth R Rothman5, Henrik Toft Sørensen2. 1. Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus N, Denmark. Electronic address: nilsskajaa@clin.au.dk. 2. Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus N, Denmark. 3. Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus N, Denmark; Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus N, Denmark. 4. Department of Cardiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus N, Denmark. 5. RTI Health Solutions, Research Triangle Institute, Research Triangle Park, NC.
Abstract
PURPOSE: The etiology of pericarditis, myocarditis, and endocarditis is predominantly infectious, and infections often show seasonal variation. Little is known, however, about seasonal patterns in these cardiopathies. METHODS: Using Danish health care registries, we identified all patients with a first-time hospital-based diagnosis of pericarditis, myocarditis, or endocarditis between 1994 and 2016. We estimated peak-to-trough ratios from fitted sine curves to measure the intensity of seasonal variation in occurrence during the study period. Because randomness will lead to small apparent seasonal patterns, we also conducted a plasmode simulation to assess the degree of seasonality that randomness would produce. RESULTS: Crude peak-to-trough ratios of monthly frequencies summarized over a year were small. We estimated a peak-to-trough ratio of 1.10 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.14) for pericarditis, 1.11 (95% CI, 1.02-1.21) for myocarditis, and 1.01 (95% CI, 1.00-1.07) for endocarditis. The simulated mean peak-to-trough ratios found after randomly reassigning the monthly frequencies within each year were 1.04 (95% CI, 1.00-1.09) for pericarditis, 1.04 (95% CI, 1.00-1.13) for myocarditis, and 1.04 (95% CI, 1.00-1.10), for endocarditis. CONCLUSION: The data indicate no important seasonal variation in the occurrence of pericarditis, myocarditis, and endocarditis in Denmark between 1994 and 2016.
PURPOSE: The etiology of pericarditis, myocarditis, and endocarditis is predominantly infectious, and infections often show seasonal variation. Little is known, however, about seasonal patterns in these cardiopathies. METHODS: Using Danish health care registries, we identified all patients with a first-time hospital-based diagnosis of pericarditis, myocarditis, or endocarditis between 1994 and 2016. We estimated peak-to-trough ratios from fitted sine curves to measure the intensity of seasonal variation in occurrence during the study period. Because randomness will lead to small apparent seasonal patterns, we also conducted a plasmode simulation to assess the degree of seasonality that randomness would produce. RESULTS: Crude peak-to-trough ratios of monthly frequencies summarized over a year were small. We estimated a peak-to-trough ratio of 1.10 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.14) for pericarditis, 1.11 (95% CI, 1.02-1.21) for myocarditis, and 1.01 (95% CI, 1.00-1.07) for endocarditis. The simulated mean peak-to-trough ratios found after randomly reassigning the monthly frequencies within each year were 1.04 (95% CI, 1.00-1.09) for pericarditis, 1.04 (95% CI, 1.00-1.13) for myocarditis, and 1.04 (95% CI, 1.00-1.10), for endocarditis. CONCLUSION: The data indicate no important seasonal variation in the occurrence of pericarditis, myocarditis, and endocarditis in Denmark between 1994 and 2016.
Authors: Daniel C DeSimone; Brian D Lahr; Nandan S Anavekar; Muhammad R Sohail; Imad M Tleyjeh; Walter R Wilson; Larry M Baddour Journal: Open Forum Infect Dis Date: 2021-01-27 Impact factor: 4.423