Cary Jo R Schlick1,2, Jessica Y Liu1,3, Anthony D Yang1,2, David J Bentrem1,2,4, Karl Y Bilimoria1,2,3, Ryan P Merkow5,6,7. 1. Surgical Outcomes and Quality Improvement Center, Department of Surgery, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, USA. 2. Northwestern Institute for Comparative Effectiveness Research in Oncology (NICER-Onc) of the Robert H. Lurie Comprehensive Cancer Center, Chicago, IL, USA. 3. Division of Research and Optimal Patient Care, American College of Surgeons, Chicago, IL, USA. 4. Surgery Service, Jesse Brown VA Medical Center, Chicago, IL, USA. 5. Surgical Outcomes and Quality Improvement Center, Department of Surgery, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, USA. ryan.merkow@nm.org. 6. Northwestern Institute for Comparative Effectiveness Research in Oncology (NICER-Onc) of the Robert H. Lurie Comprehensive Cancer Center, Chicago, IL, USA. ryan.merkow@nm.org. 7. Division of Research and Optimal Patient Care, American College of Surgeons, Chicago, IL, USA. ryan.merkow@nm.org.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is the most common preventable cause of 30-day post-operative mortality, with many events occurring after hospital discharge. High-level evidence supports post-discharge VTE chemoprophylaxis following abdominal/pelvic cancer resection; however, some studies support a more tailored approach. Our objectives were to (1) identify risk factors associated with post-discharge VTE in a large cohort of patients undergoing colorectal cancer resection and (2) develop a post-discharge VTE risk calculator. METHODS: Patients who underwent colorectal cancer resection from 2012 to 2016 were identified from ACS NSQIP colectomy and proctectomy procedure-targeted modules. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with post-discharge VTE. Incorporating pre-operative, intra-operative, and post-operative variables, a post-discharge VTE risk calculator was constructed and validated. RESULTS: Of 51,139 patients, 387 (0.76%) developed post-discharge VTE. Pre-operative factors associated with post-discharge VTE included BMI (e.g., morbidly obese OR 2.27, 95% CI 1.65-3.12 vs. normal BMI), and thrombocytosis (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.03-1.92). Intra-operative factors included operative time (4-6 h OR 1.56, 95% CI 1.12-2.17; > 6 h, OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.21-2.84, vs. < 2 h), and type of operation (e.g., open partial colectomy OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.30-2.16 vs. laparoscopic partial colectomy). Post-operative factors included anastomotic leak (OR 2.05, 95% CI 1.31-3.21) and post-operative ileus (OR 1.39, 95% CI 1.07-1.79). Using the risk calculator, the predicted probability of post-discharge VTE ranged from 0.04 to 10.29%. On a 10-fold cross validation, the calculator's mean C-Statistic was 0.65. CONCLUSIONS: Patient-specific factors are associated with varying rates of post-discharge VTE. We present the first post-discharge VTE risk calculator designed for use at the time of discharge following colorectal cancer resection.
BACKGROUND:Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is the most common preventable cause of 30-day post-operative mortality, with many events occurring after hospital discharge. High-level evidence supports post-discharge VTE chemoprophylaxis following abdominal/pelvic cancer resection; however, some studies support a more tailored approach. Our objectives were to (1) identify risk factors associated with post-discharge VTE in a large cohort of patients undergoing colorectal cancer resection and (2) develop a post-discharge VTE risk calculator. METHODS:Patients who underwent colorectal cancer resection from 2012 to 2016 were identified from ACS NSQIP colectomy and proctectomy procedure-targeted modules. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with post-discharge VTE. Incorporating pre-operative, intra-operative, and post-operative variables, a post-discharge VTE risk calculator was constructed and validated. RESULTS: Of 51,139 patients, 387 (0.76%) developed post-discharge VTE. Pre-operative factors associated with post-discharge VTE included BMI (e.g., morbidly obese OR 2.27, 95% CI 1.65-3.12 vs. normal BMI), and thrombocytosis (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.03-1.92). Intra-operative factors included operative time (4-6 h OR 1.56, 95% CI 1.12-2.17; > 6 h, OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.21-2.84, vs. < 2 h), and type of operation (e.g., open partial colectomy OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.30-2.16 vs. laparoscopic partial colectomy). Post-operative factors included anastomotic leak (OR 2.05, 95% CI 1.31-3.21) and post-operative ileus (OR 1.39, 95% CI 1.07-1.79). Using the risk calculator, the predicted probability of post-discharge VTE ranged from 0.04 to 10.29%. On a 10-fold cross validation, the calculator's mean C-Statistic was 0.65. CONCLUSIONS:Patient-specific factors are associated with varying rates of post-discharge VTE. We present the first post-discharge VTE risk calculator designed for use at the time of discharge following colorectal cancer resection.
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