IMPORTANCE: Blood sample-based biomarkers that are associated with clinically meaningful outcomes for patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) have not been developed. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the potential of serum neurofilament light chain (sNFL) measurements as a biomarker of disease activity and progression in a longitudinal MS data set. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Single-center, ongoing, prospective observational cohort study of 607 patients with MS from the longitudinal EPIC (Expression, Proteomics, Imaging, Clinical) study at the University of California, San Francisco from July 1, 2004, through August 31, 2017. Clinical evaluations and sample collection were performed annually for 5 years, then at different time points for up to 12 years, with a median follow-up duration of 10 (interquartile range, 7-11) years. Serum NFL levels were measured using a sensitive single molecule array platform and compared with clinical and magnetic resonance imaging variables with the use of univariable and multivariable analyses. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The main outcomes were disability progression defined as clinically significant worsening on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score and brain fraction atrophy. RESULTS: Mean (SD) age of the 607 study participants at study entry was 42.5 (9.8) years; 423 (69.7%) were women; and all participants were of non-Hispanic European descent. Of 3911 samples sequentially collected, 3904 passed quality control for quantification of sNFL. Baseline sNFL levels showed significant associations with EDSS score (β, 1.080; 95% CI, 1.047-1.114; P < .001), MS subtype (β, 1.478; 95% CI, 1.279-1.707; P < .001), and treatment status (β, 1.120; 95% CI, 1.007-1.245; P = .04). A significant interaction between EDSS worsening and change in levels of sNFL over time was found (β, 1.015; 95% CI, 1.007-1.023; P < .001). Baseline sNFL levels alone were associated with approximately 11.6% of the variance in brain fraction atrophy at year 10. In a multivariable analysis that considered sex, age, and disease duration, baseline sNFL levels were associated with 18.0% of the variance in brain fraction atrophy at year 10. After 5 years' follow-up, active treatment was associated with lower levels of sNFL, with high-potency treatments associated with the greater decreases in sNFL levels compared with platform therapies (high-potency vs untreated: β, 0.946; 95% CI, 0.915-0.976; P < .001; high-potency vs platform: β, 0.972; 95% CI, 0.948-0.998; P = .04). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study found that statistically significant associations of sNFL with relevant clinical and neuroimaging outcomes in MS were confirmed and extended, supporting the potential of sNFL as an objective surrogate of ongoing MS disease activity. In this data set of patients with MS who received early treatment, the prognostic power of sNFL for relapse activity and long-term disability progression was limited. Further prospective studies are necessary to assess the assay's utility for decision-making in individual patients.
IMPORTANCE: Blood sample-based biomarkers that are associated with clinically meaningful outcomes for patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) have not been developed. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the potential of serum neurofilament light chain (sNFL) measurements as a biomarker of disease activity and progression in a longitudinal MS data set. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Single-center, ongoing, prospective observational cohort study of 607 patients with MS from the longitudinal EPIC (Expression, Proteomics, Imaging, Clinical) study at the University of California, San Francisco from July 1, 2004, through August 31, 2017. Clinical evaluations and sample collection were performed annually for 5 years, then at different time points for up to 12 years, with a median follow-up duration of 10 (interquartile range, 7-11) years. Serum NFL levels were measured using a sensitive single molecule array platform and compared with clinical and magnetic resonance imaging variables with the use of univariable and multivariable analyses. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The main outcomes were disability progression defined as clinically significant worsening on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score and brain fraction atrophy. RESULTS: Mean (SD) age of the 607 study participants at study entry was 42.5 (9.8) years; 423 (69.7%) were women; and all participants were of non-Hispanic European descent. Of 3911 samples sequentially collected, 3904 passed quality control for quantification of sNFL. Baseline sNFL levels showed significant associations with EDSS score (β, 1.080; 95% CI, 1.047-1.114; P < .001), MS subtype (β, 1.478; 95% CI, 1.279-1.707; P < .001), and treatment status (β, 1.120; 95% CI, 1.007-1.245; P = .04). A significant interaction between EDSS worsening and change in levels of sNFL over time was found (β, 1.015; 95% CI, 1.007-1.023; P < .001). Baseline sNFL levels alone were associated with approximately 11.6% of the variance in brain fraction atrophy at year 10. In a multivariable analysis that considered sex, age, and disease duration, baseline sNFL levels were associated with 18.0% of the variance in brain fraction atrophy at year 10. After 5 years' follow-up, active treatment was associated with lower levels of sNFL, with high-potency treatments associated with the greater decreases in sNFL levels compared with platform therapies (high-potency vs untreated: β, 0.946; 95% CI, 0.915-0.976; P < .001; high-potency vs platform: β, 0.972; 95% CI, 0.948-0.998; P = .04). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study found that statistically significant associations of sNFL with relevant clinical and neuroimaging outcomes in MS were confirmed and extended, supporting the potential of sNFL as an objective surrogate of ongoing MS disease activity. In this data set of patients with MS who received early treatment, the prognostic power of sNFL for relapse activity and long-term disability progression was limited. Further prospective studies are necessary to assess the assay's utility for decision-making in individual patients.
Authors: Raju Kapoor; Kathryn E Smith; Mark Allegretta; Douglas L Arnold; William Carroll; Manuel Comabella; Roberto Furlan; Christopher Harp; Jens Kuhle; David Leppert; Tatiana Plavina; Finn Sellebjerg; Caroline Sincock; Charlotte E Teunissen; Ilir Topalli; Florian von Raison; Elizabeth Walker; Robert J Fox Journal: Neurology Date: 2020-07-16 Impact factor: 9.910
Authors: Michael A Sugarman; Henrik Zetterberg; Kaj Blennow; Yorghos Tripodis; Ann C McKee; Thor D Stein; Brett Martin; Joseph N Palmisano; Eric G Steinberg; Irene Simkin; Andrew E Budson; Ronald Killiany; Maureen K O'Connor; Rhoda Au; Wendy Wei Qiao Qiu; Lee E Goldstein; Neil W Kowall; Jesse Mez; Robert A Stern; Michael L Alosco Journal: Neurobiol Aging Date: 2020-05-29 Impact factor: 4.673
Authors: Sarah Harris; Giancarlo Comi; Bruce A C Cree; Douglas L Arnold; Lawrence Steinman; James K Sheffield; Harry Southworth; Ludwig Kappos; Jeffrey A Cohen Journal: Eur J Neurol Date: 2021-08-23 Impact factor: 6.288
Authors: Laura E Baldassari; Sarah M Planchon; Robert A Bermel; Kunio Nakamura; Elizabeth Fisher; Jenny Feng; Ken E Sakaie; Daniel Ontaneda; Jeffrey A Cohen Journal: Mult Scler J Exp Transl Clin Date: 2019-11-05