Daniela Valenzuela-Stutman1, Guillermo Marshall2, José L Tapia2, Gonzalo Mariani3, Aldo Bancalari4, Álvaro Gonzalez2. 1. Departamento de Neonatología, Facultad de Medicina, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Santiago, Chile. dvalenzuela1@uc.cl. 2. Departamento de Neonatología, Facultad de Medicina, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Santiago, Chile. 3. Unidad de Neonatologia, Instituto Universitario Hospital Italiano Buenos Aires, Potosí, Argentina. 4. Servicio de Neonatología, Hospital Guillermo Grant Benavente y Departamento de Pediatría, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Concepción, Concepcion, Chile.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Our objective is to develop risk prediction models for moderate/severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) and BPD and/or death in very-low-birth-weight infants (VLBWI) at birth, 3, 7, and 14 postnatal days. STUDY DESIGN: It is a multicenter study including 16,407 infants weighing 500-1500 g (2001-2015) from the Neocosur Network. BPD was defined as oxygen dependency at 36 weeks. Variables were selected using forward logistic regression models. Predictive values were evaluated using the ROC curve. RESULTS: In total, 2580 (15.7%) presented BPD and 6121 (37.3%) BPD/death. The AUC values for the BPD models were 0.788, 0.818, 0.827, and 0.894 respectively. For BPD/death, the AUC values were 0.860, 0.869, 0.867, and 0.906. BW and gestational age had higher contribution at birth; at later ages, the length of oxygen therapy and ventilation had the highest contribution. All AUC values were statistically significant when compared with a neutral value of 0.5 (p-value < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: We developed high predictive power models for moderate/severe BPD and BPD/death at four postnatal ages.
OBJECTIVE: Our objective is to develop risk prediction models for moderate/severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) and BPD and/or death in very-low-birth-weight infants (VLBWI) at birth, 3, 7, and 14 postnatal days. STUDY DESIGN: It is a multicenter study including 16,407 infants weighing 500-1500 g (2001-2015) from the Neocosur Network. BPD was defined as oxygen dependency at 36 weeks. Variables were selected using forward logistic regression models. Predictive values were evaluated using the ROC curve. RESULTS: In total, 2580 (15.7%) presented BPD and 6121 (37.3%) BPD/death. The AUC values for the BPD models were 0.788, 0.818, 0.827, and 0.894 respectively. For BPD/death, the AUC values were 0.860, 0.869, 0.867, and 0.906. BW and gestational age had higher contribution at birth; at later ages, the length of oxygen therapy and ventilation had the highest contribution. All AUC values were statistically significant when compared with a neutral value of 0.5 (p-value < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: We developed high predictive power models for moderate/severe BPD and BPD/death at four postnatal ages.
Authors: Faiza Khurshid; Helen Coo; Amal Khalil; Jonathan Messiha; Joseph Y Ting; Jonathan Wong; Prakesh S Shah Journal: Front Pediatr Date: 2021-12-07 Impact factor: 3.418