Empirical model of mesothelioma potency factors for different mineral fibers based on their chemical composition and dimensionality.

Context: The potency of various mineral fiber types to produce mesothelioma was previously evaluated for numerous cohorts, but the differences in potencies for distinct fiber types have yet to be explained. Objective: To develop an empirical model that would reconstruct mesothelioma potency factors for various types of fiber based on their chemical composition and dimensionality.
Methods: Typical chemical composition and dimensionality metrics (aspect ratios) were obtained and combined with mesothelioma potency factors estimated by Hodgson and Darnton method for Quebec chrysotile, South Africa amosite, South Africa and Australian crocidolite, Russian anthophyllite, Libby amphiboles, and Turkey erionite. The forward stepwise log-log regression method was utilized to determine the best combination of input parameters.
Results: Mesothelioma potency factors (RM) for selected cohorts were effectively reconstructed utilizing the median aspect ratio of fibers and equivalent fractions of SiO2, total Fe oxides or total equivalent Fe3+ as Fe2O3, and MgO. Modeled potency factors increase as the aspect ratio, SiO2, and total Fe oxide (or Fe2O3) content grow, and as the MgO content diminishes. Correlation coefficients up to 0.999, p < 0.01, were achieved. The models also yield reasonable estimates of mesothelioma potencies for other fiber types, including Bolivian crocidolite, Russian chrysotile, fluoro-edenite, and others.
Conclusion: In spite of the empirical approach, the proposed models provide a starting point for targeted studies of mesothelioma mechanisms by elucidating significant contributing physicochemical factors. The models have an exploratory and preliminary character but can potentially be useful to introduce quantitative structure-activity relationship approaches for the toxicology of fibrous minerals.