Alessandra Morello Gearhart1, Stephen Furmanek2, Connor English2, Julio Ramirez2, Rodrigo Cavallazzi3. 1. Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care, and Sleep Medicine, University of Louisville, USA. Electronic address: alemorello19@gmail.com. 2. Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Louisville, USA. 3. Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care, and Sleep Medicine, University of Louisville, USA.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Multiple criteria have been proposed to define community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) severity and predict ICU admission. Validity studies have found differing results. We tested four models to assess severe CAP built upon the criteria included in the 2007 IDSA/ATS guidelines, hypothesizing that a model providing different weights for each individual criterion may be of better predictability. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of a prospective cohort study of adult hospitalizations for CAP at nine hospitals in Louisville, KY from June 2014 to May 2016. Four models were tested. Model 1: original 2007 IDSA/ATS criteria. Model 2: modified IDSA/ATS criteria by removing multilobar infiltrates and changing BUN threshold to ≥30 mg/dL; adding lactate level >2 mmol/L and requirement of non-invasive mechanical ventilation (NIMV). CAP was severe with 1 major criterion or 3 minor criteria. Model 3: same criteria as model 2, CAP was severe with 1 major criterion or 4 minor criteria. Model 4: multiple regression analysis including the modified criteria as described in models 2 and 3 with a score assigned to each variable according to the magnitude of association between variable and need for ICU. RESULTS: 8284 CAP hospitalizations were included. 1458 (18%) required ICU. Model 4 showed highest prediction of need for ICU with an area under the curve of 0.91, highest accuracy, specificity, positive predictive value, and agreement among models. CONCLUSION: Assigning differential weights to clinical predictive variables generated a score with accuracy that outperformed the original 2007 IDSA/ATS criteria for severe CAP and ICU admission.
BACKGROUND: Multiple criteria have been proposed to define community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) severity and predict ICU admission. Validity studies have found differing results. We tested four models to assess severe CAP built upon the criteria included in the 2007 IDSA/ATS guidelines, hypothesizing that a model providing different weights for each individual criterion may be of better predictability. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of a prospective cohort study of adult hospitalizations for CAP at nine hospitals in Louisville, KY from June 2014 to May 2016. Four models were tested. Model 1: original 2007 IDSA/ATS criteria. Model 2: modified IDSA/ATS criteria by removing multilobar infiltrates and changing BUN threshold to ≥30 mg/dL; adding lactate level >2 mmol/L and requirement of non-invasive mechanical ventilation (NIMV). CAP was severe with 1 major criterion or 3 minor criteria. Model 3: same criteria as model 2, CAP was severe with 1 major criterion or 4 minor criteria. Model 4: multiple regression analysis including the modified criteria as described in models 2 and 3 with a score assigned to each variable according to the magnitude of association between variable and need for ICU. RESULTS: 8284 CAP hospitalizations were included. 1458 (18%) required ICU. Model 4 showed highest prediction of need for ICU with an area under the curve of 0.91, highest accuracy, specificity, positive predictive value, and agreement among models. CONCLUSION: Assigning differential weights to clinical predictive variables generated a score with accuracy that outperformed the original 2007 IDSA/ATS criteria for severe CAP and ICU admission.
Authors: Katherine Adams; Mark W Tenforde; Shreya Chodisetty; Benjamin Lee; Eric J Chow; Wesley H Self; Manish M Patel Journal: Hum Vaccin Immunother Date: 2021-11-10 Impact factor: 3.452
Authors: Rodrigo Cavallazzi; Stephen Furmanek; Forest W Arnold; Leslie A Beavin; Richard G Wunderink; Michael S Niederman; Julio A Ramirez Journal: Chest Date: 2020-04-13 Impact factor: 10.262