| Literature DB >> 31281823 |
Lian F Thomas1,2, E Anne J Cook1,2, Eric M Fèvre1,2, Jonathan Rushton1.
Abstract
The zoonotic helminth T. solium is one of the leading causes of acquired epilepsy in endemic countries, resulting in a high burden both in human health and social stigma of affected people (1-3). In 2012 T. solium was highlighted as a priority for control in the World Health Assembly resolution 66.12 (4). Despite a call for validated control strategies by 2015 and a "Tool Kit" of control options being available, relatively few examples of successfully implemented and sustainable control programs are available (5-7). A minimal control strategy focusing solely on the porcine host has also been proposed although the cost-effectiveness of such has yet to be explored (8). Although acknowledgment has been made of the need for initiatives to be sustainable, we are yet to see sufficient consideration of the balance between the provision of public and private goods, and the need for engagement of the people and organizations in the pork value chains within T. solium control strategies. We utilized a food chain risk analysis model to determine the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in terms of $/infective meal avoided, of combining a pharmaceutical intervention in pigs with strengthened meat hygiene services. The addition of a vaccination and treatment protocol, at an additional 10.3% cost, was illustrated to have the potential to improve the ICER of improving meat inspection by 74.6%. The vaccination and treatment protocol also had the potential to reduce the losses borne by the pork industry of condemned meat by 66%, highlighting the potential to leverage private sector investment in T. solium control.Entities:
Keywords: Taenia solium; control; cysticercosis; economics; incentives; interventions
Year: 2019 PMID: 31281823 PMCID: PMC6595182 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2019.00176
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Front Vet Sci ISSN: 2297-1769
Figure 1Food chain risk model structure © 2017 Thomas et al. Reproduced from Thomas et al. (49).
New model parameters. Parameters P1–P25 as per original model (49).
| P26 | Probability infected pig is detected and condemned at inspection | Sensitivity and Specificity of inspection ( | 0.387 (97.5% C.I 0.22–0.58) Sensitivity | BetaPert (0.1, 0.387, 0.9) |
| P27 | Probability uninfected pig passes inspection | 1.0 (97.5% C.I. 0.9-1.0) | BetaPert (0.9, 1.0, 1.0) | |
| P28 | Probability pig slaughtered formally has undergone vaccination and treatment protocol | Assumption | 0.75 | Uniform (0.7-0.8) |
| P29 | Probability pig is not infective after vaccination and treatment protocol | 100% effective ( | 1.0 (0.99–1.0) | BetaPert (0.99, 1.0, 1.0) |
| P30 | Value of carcass at slaughter | Mean dressed-weight 22.5kg ( | Calculated as dressed-weight × pork price (Static) | |
| P31 | Average daily weight gain | ( | 110 g/day (80–140 g) | BetaPert (80, 110, 130) |
| P32 | Pig live-weight at 3mths | Calculated 8 kg weaned weight + [(P30*30)*2] | ||
| P33 | Pig live-weight at 6mths | Calculated as P32 + [(P30*30)*3] | ||
| P34 | Cost of 1 dose Cysvax (IIL India) | Per. Comms. M. Lightowlers 2018 | $0.5 | Static |
| P35 | Cost of oxfendazole treatment/kg (Paranthic from MCI Morocco) | $0.00038 | Static | |
| P36 | Cost of vaccination and treatment protocol per pig | 2 doses of Cysvax and 2 treatments with oxfendazole 30 mg/kg ( | Calculated as (P34 ×2) + (P35*32) + (P35*P33) | |
| P37 | Number of meat inspectors required to fill deficit in Busia county | Dr Ogendo, County Director of Veterinary Services 2018 | 24 | Static |
| P38 | Global cost per meat inspector (salary, motorbike, ancillary costs) | $164,100 | RiskPert(6400,7000,7900)4 | |
| P39 | Meat Inspection costs | Calculated as P38*P37 | ||
Model outputs.
| Estimated risk of infection from any one pork meal consumed | 0.006 (99% Uncertainty Interval (U.I). 0.0002–0.0164) | 0.0036 (99% U.I 0.00009–0.0118) | 0.0012 (99% UI. 0.00003–0.0041) |
| Number of infective events/year in Busia county | 22,282 | 14,709 (99% U.I. 368-52,209) | 5,121 (99% U.I. 118-18,087) |
| Potentially infective events avoided from baseline | N/A | 7,500 (one-sided 99% U.I 0-21,912) | 17,161 (99% U.I. 504-46,047) |
| Losses through condemnation of carcasses | $10,665 | $196,078 (99% UI 63,067–395,189) | $67,143 (99% U.I 19.936–138,946) |
| Total treatment costs | N/A | N/A | $17,363 (99% U.I. 14,828–19,825) |
| Cost to county government for meat inspection services | $112,817 (99% U.I. 103,712–123,658) | $282,043 (99% U.I. $259,279–$309,146) | $282,043 (99% U.I. $259,279–$309,146) |
| Condemnation losses avoided through treatment | N/A | N/A | $178,724 (99% U.I. 48,239–375,364) |
| Incremental cost of intervention from baseline | N/A | $354,730 (99% U.I. 219,694–$555,247) | $239, 102 (99% U.I. $178,999–$352,102) |
| ICER ($/infective event avoided) | N/A | $59 (99% U.I $15–$402) | $15 (99% U.I.$ 9.81–$33.75) |
Fixed as a static baseline for comparison with intervention models.