A risk-stratification model based on the initial concentration of the serum monoclonal protein and MYD88 mutation status identifies a subset of patients with IgM monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance at high risk of progression to Waldenström macroglobulinaemia or other lymphoproliferative disorders.

IgM monoclonal gammopathies of undetermined significance (IgM MGUS) are associated with a risk of progression to Waldenström macroglobulinaemia (WM) or other lymphoproliferative disorders (LPD) of 1-2% per year. We analysed 176 consecutive patients with IgM MGUS to evaluate risk factors for progression. With a median follow-up of 83 months (1214 person-years), 15 patients (8·5%) progressed to WM (n = 14) or marginal zone lymphoma (n = 1). The rate of progression was 1·32% per year (95% confidence interval [CI] 0·80-2·20). The serum monoclonal protein concentration and the MYD88 mutation were independent risk factors for progression (Hazard ratio [HR] 23·3, 95% CI 2·0-273·3, P = 0·012 and HR 24·4, 95% CI 2·2-275·3, P = 0·010, respectively). The cumulative incidence of progression, while considering death as a competing event, was 11·6% at 5 years and 38·0% at 10 years in MYD88-mutated patients with a serum monoclonal protein of 10 g/l or higher, as compared with 0% at 5 years and 1·1% at 10 years for patients with none or one risk factor. This risk-stratification model is able to identify a subset of patients with IgM MGUS at high risk of progression to WM or LPD who deserve a lifelong follow-up.