A cost-effectiveness analysis of alternative strategies for the prevention of heart disease.

The identification of risk factors, such as a raised cholesterol level, hypertension, cigarette smoking, and obesity, permits the prediction of the possible development of ischaemic heart disease and has led to attempts at its prevention through modification of these factors. A high risk of developing ischaemic heart disease is also associated with age, specific socioeconomic groups, a family history of ischaemic heart disease, and preexisting evidence of the disease. Preventive strategies have either sought to reduce the average levels of risk in the general population or to identify by population screening individuals or groups who are at particular risk and to reduce their level of risk. Differing methods of risk-factor identification and modification are appropriate for each of the high-risk groups. For a number of strategies that are directed at either the whole population or high-risk groups we have estimated the costs of identification and risk-factor modification and the probable benefits of undertaking such a strategy. A strategy which educates the whole population by way of the media costs considerably less than does any strategy that involves the identification of individuals at high risk. At a medium cost estimate, with a reduction in risk of only 1%, such an approach costs approximately $8000 per case that is prevented; when risk reduction approaches 3% it actually results in a saving of health-care expenditure within five years. The costs of the other strategies vary between $12,000 and $26,000 per case that is prevented in a five-year period.