State Governments and Judges May Moderate the Impact of the Trump Administration's Promotion of Medicaid Work Requirements.

In January 2018, the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) released guidance that encouraged states to submit Section 1115 waivers that impose work requirements on some Medicaid beneficiaries. To evaluate the potential impact of a policy, we need to accurately predict both how far a policy will spread and how durable it will prove over time. This commentary draws upon recent political science scholarship to describe potential constraints that changes in state-level partisan control can impose on CMS's current waiver strategy, as well as how state-level constraints might interact with judicial review to further limit the policy's spread.