| Literature DB >> 31231562 |
Elena Ongaro1,2,3, Chiara Cremolini1,2, Daniele Rossini1,2, Francesca Corti4, Filippo Pagani4, Luca Morelli5, Lucio Urbani6, Gianluca Masi1,2, Carlo Sposito7, Beatrice Filippi4, Beatrice Borelli1,2, Gemma Zucchelli1,2, Roberto Moretto1,2, Alessandra Boccaccino1,2, Leonardo Solaini8, Filippo de Braud4,9, Vincenzo Mazzaferro7, Alfredo Falcone1,2, Alessandro Cucchetti8, Filippo Pietrantonio4,9.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: No tools to predict the probability of extrahepatic disease progression (ePD) of initially unresectable, liver-limited metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) are currently available. To estimate the likelihood to develop ePD and to identify clinical and molecular factors that could predict extrahepatic progression-free survival (ePFS), we conducted an observational, retrospective, multicentre cohort study.Entities:
Keywords: extrahepatic disease progression; liver-limited disease; metastatic colorectal cancer
Year: 2019 PMID: 31231562 PMCID: PMC6555604 DOI: 10.1136/esmoopen-2019-000496
Source DB: PubMed Journal: ESMO Open ISSN: 2059-7029
Baseline characteristics
| Characteristics | Overall population | Never resected | At least one liver treatment | P value* |
| Age (years) |
| |||
| ≥70 | 38 (15) | 16 (26) | 22 (13) | |
| <70 | 187 (75) | 45 (74) | 142 (87) | |
| ECOG PS |
| |||
| 1 | 30 (13) | 49 (80) | 18 (11) | |
| 0 | 195 (87) | 12 (20) | 146 (89) | |
| Timing | 0.69 | |||
| Synchronous | 194 (86) | 54 (89) | 140 (85) | |
| Metachronous | 31 (14) | 7 (11) | 24 (15) | |
| Resected primary tumour | 0.16 | |||
| Yes | 151 (67) | 36 (59) | 115 (70) | |
| No | 74 (33) | 25 (41) | 49 (30) | |
| Sidedness | 0.21 | |||
| Left | 159 (71) | 39 (64) | 120 (73) | |
| Right | 65 (29) | 22 (36) | 43 (26) | |
| Not available | 1 (0) | 0 (0) | 1 (1) | |
| Nodal involvement | 0.10 | |||
| Yes | 114 (51) | 32 (53) | 82 (50) | |
| No | 53 (24) | 8 (13) | 45 (27) | |
| Not available | 58 (26) | 21 (34) | 37 (23) | |
| Baseline CEA level | 0.54 | |||
| >200 ng/mL | 49 (22) | 16 (26) | 33 (20) | |
| ≤200 ng/mL | 128 (57) | 34 (56) | 94 (57) | |
| Not available | 48 (21) | 11 (18) | 37 (23) | |
| Number of liver metastases |
| |||
| ≥4 | 135 (60) | 45 (74) | 90 (55) | |
| <4 | 69 (31) | 8 (13) | 61 (37) | |
| Not available | 21 (9) | 8 (13) | 13 (8) | |
| Liver metastases maximum diameter | 0.69 | |||
| >30 mm | 134 (60) | 38 (62) | 96 (58) | |
| ≤30 mm | 65 (29) | 16 (26) | 49 (30) | |
| Not available | 26 (11) | 7 (12) | 19 (12) | |
| Bilobar involvement | 0.22 | |||
| Yes | 153 (68) | 43 (71) | 110 (67) | |
| No | 63 (28) | 12 (20) | 51 (31) | |
| Not available | 9 (4) | 6 (9) | 3 (2) | |
| Liver involvement |
| |||
| >6 segments | 49 (22) | 26 (43) | 23 (14) | |
| ≤6 segments | 161 (71) | 26 (43) | 135 (82) | |
| Not available | 15 (7) | 9 (14) | 6 (4) | |
| RAS/BRAF status | 0.13 | |||
| Mutated | 107 (48) | 36 (59) | 71 (43) | |
| Wild type | 92 (41) | 21 (34) | 71 (43) | |
| Not available | 26 (11) | 4 (7) | 22 (14) | |
| Microsatellite status | 1.00 | |||
| MSI High | 3 (1) | 0 (0) | 3 (2) | |
| MSI low/MSS | 54 (24) | 9 (14) | 45 (27) | |
| Not available | 168 (75) | 52 (86) | 116 (71) | |
| Induction CT | 0.31 | |||
| Triplet | 126 (56) | 38 (62) | 88 (54) | |
| Doublet | 99 (44) | 23 (38) | 76 (46) | |
| Biological agent | 0.09 | |||
| Anti-EGFR | 57 (25) | 13 (21) | 44 (27) | |
| Anti-VEGF | 132 (59) | 38 (62) | 94 (57) | |
| Both | 11 (5) | 6 (10) | 5 (3) | |
| None | 25 (11) | 4 (7) | 21 (13) | |
*P value for χ2 and Fisher’s exact test
Anti-EGFR, anti-epidermal growth factor receptor; Anti-VEGF, anti-vascular endothelial growth factor; CEA, carcinoembryonic antigen;CT, chemotherapy; ECOG, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group;MSI, microsatellite instability;MSS, microstatellite stable;PS, Performance Status.
Figure 1ePD distribution. (A) Description of overall population. (B) ePD cumulative distribution through each year from diagnosis in overall population. (C) ePD cumulative distribution through each year from first liver resection in patients undergoing one secondary resection. () ePD cumulative distribution through each year from last liver procedure in patients undergoing more than one locoregional procedure. ePD, extrahepatic disease progression.
Univariable and multivariable analyses for ePFS in the overall population
| Characteristics | Univariable analyses | Multivariable analyses | ||||
| HR | 95% CI | P value | HR | 95% CI | P value | |
| Age ≥70 years versus <70 years |
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| 1.02 | 0.99 to 1.04 | 0.12 |
| ECOG PS 1 versus 0 |
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| Synchronous versus metachronous | 1.31 | 0.87 to 1.98 | 0.24 | – | – | – |
| Resected primary tumour versus unresected | 0.84 | 0.61 to 1.15 | 0.26 | – | – | – |
| Left versus right primary | 0.89 | 0.64 to 1.26 | 0.52 | – | – | – |
| Nodal involvement versus no involvement |
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| 1.48 | 0.91 to 2.40 | 0.12 |
| Baseline CEA level >200 versus ≤200 ng/mL | 1.19 | 0.80 to 1.77 | 0.37 | – | – | – |
| Number of liver metastases ≥4 versus <4 |
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| Liver metastases maximum diameter >30 versus ≤30 mm |
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| Bilobar involvement yes versus no | 1.14 | 0.82 to 1.58 | 0.44 | – | – | – |
| Liver involvement >6 versus ≤6 segments |
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| 0.69 | 0.36 to 1.33 | 0.27 |
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| 1.11 | 0.82 to 1.51 | 0.67 | – | – | – |
| MSI high versus MSS |
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| -* | -* | -* |
| Triplet versus doublet induction | 1.20 | 0.89 to 1.62 | 0.22 | – | – | – |
| Anti-EGFR versus anti-VEGF | 1.04 | 0.73 to 1.47 | 0.37 | – | – | – |
| Liver secondary resection |
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| Liver retreatments |
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| – | – | – |
*Too small sample size for multivariable model
†Bold values represent statistically significant values.
Anti-EGFR, anti-epidermal growth factor receptor; Anti-VEGF, anti-vascular endothelial growth factor receptor; CEA, carcinoembryonic antigen; ECOG, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group; MSI, microsatellite instability; MSS, microstatellite stable; PS, Performance Status; ePFS, extrahepatic progression-free survival.
Figure 2Cumulative incidence of ePD according to number of liver lesions and secondary resection and kernel smoothed hazard estimator for ePFS. CRC, colorectal cancer; ePFS, extrahepatic progression-free survival; n, number; Mets, liver metastases; HR, hepatic resection; N, nodal involvement.